David Montgomery
RBHOU · bye 8DNA SNova projection
169season budget (pts)
10.92
PPR / game
79
Nova rank
T6
tier
10.4
VORP
Market
56.0
ADP · 5.08
40-70
draft range
63
expert ECR
45-108
expert range
-22
Nova vs market rank
-22
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
47
floor (P10)
169
median (budget)
345
ceiling (P90)
18%
P(tier-1 season)
39%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB16-RB52
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.877x position norm · 45 games · 13.24 mean PPR
David Montgomery is Nova's 79th-ranked player overall (RB, HOU), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 169 points this season, about 10.92 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 56, ahead of Nova's 79.
Nova gives him about a 18% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 47 points (floor) to 345 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 79 | T6 | 10.4 | 18% | RB16-RB52 | 47.4-344.6 |
| Half PPR | 70 | T5 | 14.6 | 20% | RB16-RB51 | 44.1-320.9 |
| Standard | 61 | T7 | 20 | 21% | RB15-RB50 | 40.9-297.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 91 | T8 | 5.1 | 18% | RB16-RB52 | 47.4-344.6 |
Nova season stat lines15.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 197.7 |
| Receptions | 23.3 |
| Rushing Yards | 702.4 |
| Rushing TDs | 8.9 |
| Passing Yards | 2.1 |
2025 usage profile17 games
37%
snap share
1.7
targets / game
5%
team target share
0%
air yards share
0.083
WOPR (opportunity)
1.4
receptions / game
83%
catch rate
6.6
yards / target
0.7
air yards / game
9.3
carries / game
35%
team carry share
4.5
yards / carry
37
red-zone opportunities (6 TDs)
+1.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3.8
TD pace vs position (9 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
22.5
rush yards before contact / g
19.6
rush yards after contact / g
0
drops
0%
drop rate
89.5
passer rating when targeted
0
times pressured
0%
pressure rate faced
1
times blitzed
0
times sacked
0
times hurried
0
times hit
0%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DET vs GB | 11-25-0 rush, 4-18 rec | 8.3 |
| W2 | DET vs CHI | 11-57-1 rush, 1-4 rec | 13.1 |
| W3 | DET vs BAL | 12-151-2 rush, 1-13 rec | 29.4 |
| W4 | DET vs CLE | 9-12-0 rush, 0-0 rec | 1.2 |
| W5 | DET vs CIN | 18-65-1 rush, 1-6 rec | 18.2 |
| W6 | DET vs KC | 4-24-0 rush, 2-37 rec | 8.1 |
| W7 | DET vs TB | 13-21-0 rush, 2-18 rec | 5.9 |
| W9 | DET vs MIN | 11-40-1 rush, 2-10 rec | 11.0 |
| W10 | DET vs WAS | 15-71-0 rush, 1-0 rec | 10.1 |
| W11 | DET vs PHI | 6-27-0 rush, 1-10 rec | 4.7 |
| W12 | DET vs NYG | 5-18-0 rush, 3-19 rec | 6.7 |
| W13 | DET vs GB | 8-32-1 rush, 2-16 rec | 12.8 |
| W14 | DET vs DAL | 6-60-1 rush, 1-13 rec | 14.3 |
| W15 | DET vs LA | 7-32-1 rush, 0-0 rec | 9.2 |
| W16 | DET vs PIT | 4-14-0 rush | 1.4 |
| W17 | DET vs MIN | 10-25-0 rush, 2-15 rec | 6.0 |
| W18 | DET vs CHI | 8-42-0 rush, 1-13 rec | 6.5 |