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Positional Scarcity Curve

Value-based drafting starts with one question: where does each position’s value fall off a cliff? This plots VORP against positional rank for QB, RB, WR, and TE side by side, with dots marking every tier boundary, so you can see exactly which picks are worth reaching for and which can wait.

VORP and tiers are Nova’s model, format-specific. Positional rank is each player’s rank within their own position (1 = best at that position), not their overall rank. All from free data.
What do these terms mean?
VORP
Value Over Replacement Player: projected points above a freely-available replacement at the same position. Nova's core measure of real value.
Tier
Nova's value tier at the position. A tier break marks a real cliff in value, so Tier 1 is the top group, Tier 2 the next, and so on.
Pos Rank
Rank within his position (by ADP on market columns, or by Nova's model where shown against Nova numbers), for example WR5.
= Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference and raw stats Nova is measured against.
PPR scoring · top 36 per position by Nova VORP rank · dots mark tier boundaries (the cliffs)
Picks already gone:
Draft read
With roughly 12 picks off the board, RB has the steepest immediate dropoff among the next players available: going from Jeremiyah Love (VORP 155) to De'Von Achane (VORP 125) costs 30 VORP. That is the position where waiting one more round costs the most value right now.
Approximation: assumes picks are spread evenly across QB/RB/WR/TE. It is a simple read, not a full draft simulator.
QBRBWRTE
QB tier 5 starts here #2 Jalen Hurts VORP 62QB tier 6 starts here #3 Bo Nix VORP 52RB tier 2 starts here #3 Jeremiyah Love VORP 155RB tier 3 starts here #4 De'Von Achane VORP 125RB tier 4 starts here #6 Jonathan Taylor VORP 98RB tier 5 starts here #11 Saquon Barkley VORP 74RB tier 6 starts here #15 Chase Brown VORP 52WR tier 3 starts here #4 Jaxon Smith-Njigba VORP 118WR tier 4 starts here #5 CeeDee Lamb VORP 87WR tier 5 starts here #6 George Pickens VORP 69WR tier 6 starts here #12 A.J. Brown VORP 50TE tier 4 starts here #2 Brock Bowers VORP 84TE tier 5 starts here #3 Harold Fannin Jr. VORP 57TE tier 6 starts here #4 Tyler Warren VORP 49QB1 Josh Allen VORP 106 · tier 4QB2 Jalen Hurts VORP 62 · tier 5QB3 Bo Nix VORP 52 · tier 6QB4 Drake Maye VORP 46 · tier 6QB5 Lamar Jackson VORP 45 · tier 6QB6 Caleb Williams VORP 38 · tier 6QB7 Baker Mayfield VORP 31 · tier 6QB8 Jared Goff VORP 31 · tier 6QB9 Trevor Lawrence VORP 24 · tier 6QB10 Patrick Mahomes VORP 23 · tier 6QB11 Justin Herbert VORP 18 · tier 6QB12 Brock Purdy VORP 3 · tier 6QB13 Jaxson Dart VORP 0 · tier 6QB14 Matthew Stafford VORP -2 · tier 6QB15 Jordan Love VORP -4 · tier 6QB16 Dak Prescott VORP -8 · tier 6QB17 C.J. Stroud VORP -16 · tier 6QB18 Jayden Daniels VORP -27 · tier 6QB19 Joe Burrow VORP -28 · tier 6QB20 Sam Darnold VORP -32 · tier 6QB21 Bryce Young VORP -39 · tier 6QB22 Tua Tagovailoa VORP -49 · tier 6QB23 Fernando Mendoza VORP -50 · tier 6QB24 Cam Ward VORP -50 · tier 6QB25 Geno Smith VORP -56 · tier 6QB26 Daniel Jones VORP -68 · tier 6QB27 Kyler Murray VORP -70 · tier 6QB28 Tyler Shough VORP -76 · tier 6QB29 Aaron Rodgers VORP -81 · tier 6QB30 Derek Carr VORP -82 · tier 6QB31 J.J. McCarthy VORP -86 · tier 6QB32 Justin Fields VORP -87 · tier 6QB33 Will Levis VORP -109 · tier 6QB34 Sam Howell VORP -109 · tier 6QB35 Jacoby Brissett VORP -114 · tier 6QB36 Kirk Cousins VORP -115 · tier 6RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs VORP 171 · tier 1RB2 Bijan Robinson VORP 166 · tier 1RB3 Jeremiyah Love VORP 155 · tier 2RB4 De'Von Achane VORP 125 · tier 3RB5 Christian McCaffrey VORP 118 · tier 3RB6 Jonathan Taylor VORP 98 · tier 4RB7 Kyren Williams VORP 92 · tier 4RB8 Derrick Henry VORP 92 · tier 4RB9 James Cook III VORP 91 · tier 4RB10 Ashton Jeanty VORP 82 · tier 4RB11 Saquon Barkley VORP 74 · tier 5RB12 Breece Hall VORP 67 · tier 5RB13 Josh Jacobs VORP 59 · tier 5RB14 Joe Mixon VORP 57 · tier 5RB15 Chase Brown VORP 52 · tier 6RB16 TreVeyon Henderson VORP 42 · tier 6RB17 Travis Etienne Jr. VORP 36 · tier 6RB18 D'Andre Swift VORP 34 · tier 6RB19 RJ Harvey VORP 33 · tier 6RB20 Javonte Williams VORP 32 · tier 6RB21 Bucky Irving VORP 31 · tier 6RB22 Kenneth Walker III VORP 24 · tier 6RB23 Quinshon Judkins VORP 15 · tier 6RB24 Tony Pollard VORP 15 · tier 6RB25 David Montgomery VORP 10 · tier 6RB26 Alvin Kamara VORP 8 · tier 6RB27 Rachaad White VORP 6 · tier 6RB28 Jaylen Warren VORP 5 · tier 6RB29 Rico Dowdle VORP 5 · tier 6RB30 Zach Charbonnet VORP 0 · tier 6RB31 Omarion Hampton VORP -1 · tier 6RB32 Rhamondre Stevenson VORP -1 · tier 6RB33 Chuba Hubbard VORP -1 · tier 6RB34 Tyrone Tracy Jr. VORP -1 · tier 6RB35 Jadarian Price VORP -4 · tier 6RB36 Cam Skattebo VORP -8 · tier 6WR1 Ja'Marr Chase VORP 151 · tier 2WR2 Puka Nacua VORP 147 · tier 2WR3 Amon-Ra St. Brown VORP 139 · tier 2WR4 Jaxon Smith-Njigba VORP 118 · tier 3WR5 CeeDee Lamb VORP 87 · tier 4WR6 George Pickens VORP 69 · tier 5WR7 Justin Jefferson VORP 62 · tier 5WR8 Drake London VORP 61 · tier 5WR9 Carnell Tate VORP 60 · tier 5WR10 Nico Collins VORP 58 · tier 5WR11 Zay Flowers VORP 57 · tier 5WR12 A.J. Brown VORP 50 · tier 6WR13 Tetairoa McMillan VORP 49 · tier 6WR14 Davante Adams VORP 49 · tier 6WR15 Chris Olave VORP 44 · tier 6WR16 Ladd McConkey VORP 39 · tier 6WR17 Brian Thomas Jr. VORP 34 · tier 6WR18 Tee Higgins VORP 32 · tier 6WR19 DeVonta Smith VORP 31 · tier 6WR20 Courtland Sutton VORP 29 · tier 6WR21 Emeka Egbuka VORP 29 · tier 6WR22 Jameson Williams VORP 26 · tier 6WR23 DJ Moore VORP 26 · tier 6WR24 Jordyn Tyson VORP 25 · tier 6WR25 Wan'Dale Robinson VORP 24 · tier 6WR26 DK Metcalf VORP 19 · tier 6WR27 Jordan Addison VORP 17 · tier 6WR28 Michael Pittman Jr. VORP 17 · tier 6WR29 Keenan Allen VORP 17 · tier 6WR30 Garrett Wilson VORP 16 · tier 6WR31 Stefon Diggs VORP 15 · tier 6WR32 Jakobi Meyers VORP 12 · tier 6WR33 Malik Nabers VORP 12 · tier 6WR34 Jaylen Waddle VORP 8 · tier 6WR35 Tyreek Hill VORP 5 · tier 6WR36 Deebo Samuel Sr. VORP 5 · tier 6TE1 Trey McBride VORP 117 · tier 3TE2 Brock Bowers VORP 84 · tier 4TE3 Harold Fannin Jr. VORP 57 · tier 5TE4 Tyler Warren VORP 49 · tier 6TE5 George Kittle VORP 38 · tier 6TE6 Colston Loveland VORP 34 · tier 6TE7 Travis Kelce VORP 33 · tier 6TE8 Kyle Pitts Sr. VORP 30 · tier 6TE9 Sam LaPorta VORP 25 · tier 6TE10 Jake Ferguson VORP 17 · tier 6TE11 Kenyon Sadiq VORP 9 · tier 6TE12 Oronde Gadsden VORP 4 · tier 6TE13 Dallas Goedert VORP 0 · tier 6TE14 Dalton Schultz VORP -1 · tier 6TE15 Hunter Henry VORP -1 · tier 6TE16 Tucker Kraft VORP -4 · tier 6TE17 Juwan Johnson VORP -4 · tier 6TE18 Mark Andrews VORP -7 · tier 6TE19 Dalton Kincaid VORP -11 · tier 6TE20 AJ Barner VORP -13 · tier 6TE21 Cade Otton VORP -14 · tier 6TE22 David Njoku VORP -15 · tier 6TE23 T.J. Hockenson VORP -16 · tier 6TE24 Pat Freiermuth VORP -18 · tier 6TE25 Jonnu Smith VORP -22 · tier 6TE26 Zach Ertz VORP -23 · tier 6TE27 Chig Okonkwo VORP -23 · tier 6TE28 Evan Engram VORP -25 · tier 6TE29 Theo Johnson VORP -27 · tier 6TE30 Logan Thomas VORP -31 · tier 6TE31 Cole Kmet VORP -32 · tier 6TE32 Brenton Strange VORP -38 · tier 6TE33 Mason Taylor VORP -39 · tier 6TE34 Gunnar Helm VORP -41 · tier 6TE35 Colby Parkinson VORP -42 · tier 6TE36 Darren Waller VORP -42 · tier 6Positional rank (1 = best at position)Rank within his position (by ADP on market columns, or by Nova's model where shown against Nova numbers), for example WR5.VORP (PPR)Value Over Replacement Player: projected points above a freely-available replacement at the same position. Nova's core measure of real value.171319243036-115-56362121179