Terry McLaurin
WRWAS · bye 7DNA S+Nova projection
163season budget (pts)
11.57
PPR / game
92
Nova rank
T6
tier
1.6
VORP
Market
36.9
ADP · 4.01
28-46
draft range
45
expert ECR
31-69
expert range
-53
Nova vs market rank
-53
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
61
floor (P10)
163
median (budget)
280
ceiling (P90)
11%
P(tier-1 season)
24%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR25-WR79
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.833x position norm · 44 games · 13.3 mean PPR
Market coverage
-20
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Terry McLaurin is Nova's 92nd-ranked player overall (WR, WAS), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 163 points this season, about 11.57 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 37, ahead of Nova's 92.
Nova gives him about a 11% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 61 points (floor) to 280 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -20). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 92 | T6 | 1.6 | 11% | WR25-WR79 | 61.1-279.9 |
| Half PPR | 92 | T6 | 0.8 | 11% | WR25-WR78 | 50.9-233.2 |
| Standard | 81 | T7 | 3.2 | 12% | WR24-WR76 | 40.7-186.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 102 | T8 | -0.4 | 11% | WR25-WR79 | 61.1-279.9 |
Nova season stat lines14.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 751.2 |
| Receptions | 54.6 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.6 |
| Rushing Yards | 1.2 |
2025 usage profile10 games
70%
snap share
6
targets / game
23%
team target share
37%
air yards share
0.608
WOPR (opportunity)
3.8
receptions / game
63%
catch rate
9.7
yards / target
83.9
air yards / game
8
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
+0.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+1.1
TD pace vs position (3 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
6
broken tackles forced
1
drops
0.7%
drop rate
103.5
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 47% over | 5.6 | +1.8% |
| Receiving Yards | 949.5 | 50% over | 751.2 | -20.9% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | WAS vs NYG | 2-27-0 (4 tgt) | 4.7 |
| W2 | WAS vs GB | 5-48-0 (9 tgt) | 9.8 |
| W3 | WAS vs LV | 3-74-0 (4 tgt) | 10.4 |
| W8 | WAS vs KC | 3-54-1 (4 tgt) | 14.4 |
| W13 | WAS vs DEN | 7-96-1 (14 tgt) | 22.6 |
| W14 | WAS vs MIN | 3-41-0 (6 tgt) | 7.1 |
| W15 | WAS vs NYG | 3-69-1 (4 tgt) | 15.9 |
| W16 | WAS vs PHI | 3-53-0 (4 tgt) | 8.3 |
| W17 | WAS vs DAL | 5-63-0 (7 tgt) | 11.3 |
| W18 | WAS vs PHI | 4-57-0 (4 tgt) | 9.7 |