Josh Allen
QBBUF · bye 7DNA XNova projection
357season budget (pts)
22.3
PPR / game
11
Nova rank
T4
tier
105.6
VORP
Market
27.8
ADP · 3.04
11-41
draft range
22
expert ECR
25-27
expert range
+19
Nova vs market rank
+19
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
128
floor (P10)
357
median (budget)
635
ceiling (P90)
41%
P(tier-1 season)
60%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB3-QB20
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
X · Extreme boom/bust
volatility 1.21x position norm · 49 games · 23.19 mean PPR
Josh Allen is Nova's 11th-ranked player overall (QB, BUF), in Tier 4. Nova projects roughly 357 points this season, about 22.3 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 28, well behind Nova's 11, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 41% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 128 points (floor) to 635 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades X (Extreme boom/bust). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 11 | T4 | 105.6 | 41% | QB3-QB20 | 128-634.6 |
| Half PPR | 8 | T4 | 105.6 | 41% | QB3-QB20 | 128-634.6 |
| Standard | 5 | T4 | 105.6 | 41% | QB3-QB20 | 128-634.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 3 | T1 | 154.1 | 41% | QB3-QB20 | 128-634.6 |
Nova season stat lines16 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1.9 |
| Rushing Yards | 522.8 |
| Rushing TDs | 12.7 |
| Passing Yards | 3674.2 |
| Passing TDs | 25.6 |
2025 usage profile16 games
92%
snap share
7
carries / game
23%
team carry share
5.2
yards / carry
33
red-zone opportunities (13 TDs)
+9
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+17
TD pace vs position (39 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
7
broken tackles forced
22.2
rush yards before contact / g
13.9
rush yards after contact / g
99
times pressured
17.8%
pressure rate faced
128
times blitzed
40
times sacked
30
times hurried
29
times hit
12%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BUF vs BAL | 394-2-0 pass, 14-30-2 rush | 38.8 |
| W2 | BUF vs NYJ | 148-0-0 pass, 6-59-0 rush | 11.8 |
| W3 | BUF vs MIA | 213-3-0 pass, 4-25-0 rush | 23.0 |
| W4 | BUF vs NO | 209-2-1 pass, 7-45-1 rush | 24.9 |
| W5 | BUF vs NE | 253-2-1 pass, 9-53-0 rush | 19.4 |
| W6 | BUF vs ATL | 180-2-2 pass, 6-42-0 rush | 15.4 |
| W8 | BUF vs CAR | 163-1-0 pass, 3-7-2 rush | 23.2 |
| W9 | BUF vs KC | 273-1-0 pass, 6-19-2 rush | 28.8 |
| W10 | BUF vs MIA | 306-2-1 pass, 4-31-0 rush | 19.3 |
| W11 | BUF vs TB | 317-3-2 pass, 6-40-3 rush | 42.7 |
| W12 | BUF vs HOU | 253-0-2 pass, 5-20-0 rush | 8.1 |
| W13 | BUF vs PIT | 123-1-1 pass, 8-38-1 rush | 16.7 |
| W14 | BUF vs CIN | 251-3-0 pass, 9-78-1 rush | 37.8 |
| W15 | BUF vs NE | 193-3-0 pass, 11-48-0 rush | 24.5 |
| W16 | BUF vs CLE | 130-0-0 pass, 7-17-0 rush | 6.9 |
| W17 | BUF vs PHI | 262-0-0 pass, 7-27-2 rush | 23.2 |