Puka Nacua
WRLA · bye 11DNA BNova projection
308season budget (pts)
20.62
PPR / game
5
Nova rank
T2
tier
147.2
VORP
Market
2.6
ADP · 1.03
1-3
draft range
4
expert ECR
2-9
expert range
-2
Nova vs market rank
-2
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
116
floor (P10)
308
median (budget)
535
ceiling (P90)
47%
P(tier-1 season)
68%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR5-WR32
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.995x position norm · 44 games · 20 mean PPR
Market coverage
+8
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Puka Nacua is Nova's 5th-ranked player overall (WR, LA), in Tier 2. Nova projects roughly 308 points this season, about 20.62 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 3, Nova 5).
Nova gives him about a 47% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 116 points (floor) to 535 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +8). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 5 | T2 | 147.2 | 47% | WR5-WR32 | 115.5-535.2 |
| Half PPR | 5 | T4 | 119.3 | 47% | WR5-WR32 | 95.2-441 |
| Standard | 8 | T4 | 94.6 | 47% | WR5-WR32 | 74.8-346.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 6 | T1 | 145.2 | 47% | WR5-WR32 | 115.5-535.2 |
Nova season stat lines14.9 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1445.7 |
| Receptions | 108.8 |
| Receiving TDs | 7.1 |
| Rushing Yards | 83 |
2025 usage profile16 games
68%
snap share
10.4
targets / game
30%
team target share
34%
air yards share
0.688
WOPR (opportunity)
8.1
receptions / game
78%
catch rate
10.3
yards / target
97.9
air yards / game
0.6
carries / game
2%
team carry share
10.5
yards / carry
18
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
+1.5
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+7.9
TD pace vs position (11 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
12
broken tackles forced
4.9
rush yards before contact / g
10.1
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
2.5%
drop rate
117.2
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 7.5 | 55% over | 7.1 | -5.3% |
| Receiving Yards | 1324.5 | 50% over | 1445.7 | +9.2% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LA vs HOU | 10-130-0 (11 tgt), 1-1 rush | 23.1 |
| W2 | LA vs TEN | 8-91-0 (9 tgt), 1-45 rush | 27.6 |
| W3 | LA vs PHI | 11-112-0 (15 tgt), 1-6 rush | 22.8 |
| W4 | LA vs IND | 13-170-1 (15 tgt) | 36.0 |
| W5 | LA vs SF | 10-85-1 (12 tgt) | 24.5 |
| W6 | LA vs BAL | 2-28-0 (3 tgt) | 4.8 |
| W9 | LA vs NO | 7-95-1 (8 tgt), 1-3 rush | 22.8 |
| W10 | LA vs SF | 5-64-1 (6 tgt) | 17.4 |
| W11 | LA vs SEA | 7-75-0 (8 tgt), 2-18 rush | 14.3 |
| W12 | LA vs TB | 7-97-0 (11 tgt) | 16.7 |
| W13 | LA vs CAR | 6-72-0 (9 tgt) | 13.2 |
| W14 | LA vs ARI | 7-167-2 (11 tgt) | 35.7 |
| W15 | LA vs DET | 9-181-0 (11 tgt), 2-8 rush | 27.9 |
| W16 | LA vs SEA | 12-225-2 (16 tgt) | 46.5 |
| W17 | LA vs ATL | 5-47-1 (10 tgt) | 15.7 |
| W18 | LA vs ARI | 10-76-1 (11 tgt), 2-24 rush | 26.0 |