Trey McBride
TEARI · bye 14DNA VNova projection
255season budget (pts)
15.63
PPR / game
10
Nova rank
T3
tier
116.8
VORP
Market
27.6
ADP · 3.04
14-37
draft range
21
expert ECR
16-56
expert range
+18
Nova vs market rank
+18
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
95
floor (P10)
255
median (budget)
430
ceiling (P90)
51%
P(tier-1 season)
72%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE2-TE14
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.013x position norm · 50 games · 14.82 mean PPR
Market coverage
+8
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Trey McBride is Nova's 10th-ranked player overall (TE, ARI), in Tier 3. Nova projects roughly 255 points this season, about 15.63 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 28, well behind Nova's 10, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 51% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 95 points (floor) to 430 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +8). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 10 | T3 | 116.8 | 51% | TE2-TE14 | 94.8-429.8 |
| Half PPR | 15 | T4 | 87.9 | 51% | TE2-TE14 | 74.9-339.4 |
| Standard | 18 | T6 | 60.1 | 49% | TE3-TE15 | 54.9-249.1 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 9 | T3 | 116.8 | 51% | TE2-TE14 | 94.8-429.8 |
Nova season stat lines16.3 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1077 |
| Receptions | 107.4 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.4 |
2025 usage profile17 games
91%
snap share
9.9
targets / game
28%
team target share
25%
air yards share
0.59
WOPR (opportunity)
7.4
receptions / game
75%
catch rate
7.3
yards / target
66.2
air yards / game
34
red-zone opportunities (11 TDs)
+4.2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+7.9
TD pace vs position (11 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
9
broken tackles forced
2
drops
1.2%
drop rate
108.4
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 47% over | 6.4 | -1.5% |
| Receiving Yards | 999.5 | 50% over | 1077 | +7.8% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ARI vs NO | 6-61-0 (9 tgt) | 12.1 |
| W2 | ARI vs CAR | 6-78-0 (7 tgt) | 13.8 |
| W3 | ARI vs SF | 5-43-1 (8 tgt) | 15.3 |
| W4 | ARI vs SEA | 7-52-0 (11 tgt) | 12.2 |
| W5 | ARI vs TEN | 5-41-0 (7 tgt) | 9.1 |
| W6 | ARI vs IND | 8-72-1 (11 tgt) | 21.2 |
| W7 | ARI vs GB | 10-74-2 (13 tgt) | 29.4 |
| W9 | ARI vs DAL | 5-55-1 (9 tgt) | 16.5 |
| W10 | ARI vs SEA | 9-127-1 (13 tgt) | 27.7 |
| W11 | ARI vs SF | 10-115-1 (11 tgt) | 27.5 |
| W12 | ARI vs JAX | 9-79-0 (10 tgt) | 16.9 |
| W13 | ARI vs TB | 8-82-1 (9 tgt) | 22.2 |
| W14 | ARI vs LA | 5-58-0 (9 tgt) | 10.8 |
| W15 | ARI vs HOU | 12-134-2 (13 tgt) | 37.4 |
| W16 | ARI vs ATL | 4-27-0 (8 tgt) | 6.7 |
| W17 | ARI vs CIN | 10-76-1 (13 tgt) | 23.6 |
| W18 | ARI vs LA | 7-65-0 (8 tgt) | 13.5 |