Justin Herbert
QBLAC · bye 7DNA BNova projection
274season budget (pts)
17.54
PPR / game
68
Nova rank
T6
tier
18.2
VORP
Market
77.4
ADP · 7.05
50-108
draft range
68
expert ECR
53-112
expert range
+12
Nova vs market rank
+12
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
98
floor (P10)
274
median (budget)
491
ceiling (P90)
23%
P(tier-1 season)
42%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB7-QB30
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.942x position norm · 46 games · 17.53 mean PPR
Justin Herbert is Nova's 68th-ranked player overall (QB, LAC), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 274 points this season, about 17.54 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 77, Nova 68).
Nova gives him about a 23% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 98 points (floor) to 491 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 68 | T6 | 18.2 | 23% | QB7-QB30 | 98.4-491.1 |
| Half PPR | 65 | T5 | 18.1 | 23% | QB7-QB30 | 98.4-490.9 |
| Standard | 65 | T7 | 18 | 23% | QB7-QB30 | 98.3-490.7 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 29 | T7 | 66.7 | 23% | QB7-QB30 | 98.4-491.1 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1.9 |
| Rushing Yards | 380.6 |
| Rushing TDs | 2.2 |
| Passing Yards | 3639.4 |
| Passing TDs | 23.8 |
2025 usage profile16 games
97%
snap share
5.2
carries / game
19%
team carry share
6
yards / carry
14
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
+0.3
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+6
TD pace vs position (28 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
25.6
rush yards before contact / g
5.6
rush yards after contact / g
182
times pressured
28.9%
pressure rate faced
143
times blitzed
54
times sacked
55
times hurried
73
times hit
13.9%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LAC vs KC | 318-3-0 pass, 7-32-0 rush | 27.9 |
| W2 | LAC vs LV | 242-2-0 pass, 9-31-0 rush | 18.8 |
| W3 | LAC vs DEN | 300-1-1 pass, 2-6-0 rush | 14.6 |
| W4 | LAC vs NYG | 203-1-2 pass, 1-24-0 rush | 12.5 |
| W5 | LAC vs WAS | 166-1-1 pass, 4-60-0 rush | 14.6 |
| W6 | LAC vs MIA | 264-2-0 pass, 1-2-0 rush | 18.8 |
| W7 | LAC vs IND | 420-3-2 pass, 6-31-0 rush | 27.9 |
| W8 | LAC vs MIN | 227-3-1 pass, 7-62-0 rush | 25.3 |
| W9 | LAC vs TEN | 250-2-1 pass, 9-57-1 rush | 27.7 |
| W10 | LAC vs PIT | 220-1-0 pass, 5-19-0 rush | 14.7 |
| W11 | LAC vs JAX | 81-0-1 pass, 3-21-0 rush | 3.3 |
| W13 | LAC vs LV | 151-2-1 pass, 3-8-0 rush | 12.8 |
| W14 | LAC vs PHI | 139-1-1 pass, 10-66-0 rush | 12.2 |
| W15 | LAC vs KC | 210-1-1 pass | 10.4 |
| W16 | LAC vs DAL | 300-2-0 pass, 8-42-1 rush | 30.2 |
| W17 | LAC vs HOU | 236-1-1 pass, 6-37-0 rush | 15.1 |