Vegas has already priced every player. We turn that into a full points distribution.
The sportsbooks set a line on every player, with real money behind it. We read the entire prop ladder, translate it into a full fantasy-point distribution for each player, and publish our accuracy every week once the season starts. It is July, so the board is built for your draft.
970 players priced · 2026 preseason2,064 real drafts behind current ADP4 formats · PPR / Half / Standard / SuperflexNo accuracy claims until Week 1.
Start here for your draft
It is draft season. These four are where the whole board pays off fastest. Everything else is one scroll down.
Preseason Rankings
The full board. Every projected player with the Vegas-implied distribution behind the number, in your format.
Draft Room
Live pick assistant. Best available by value over replacement, tier cliffs, and the odds a player wheels back.
Mock Draft
Run a full snake draft against AI opponents. Nova recommends every pick from the same distributions.
Values and Reaches
Where our number splits from ADP. The sleepers the room is sleeping on, and the reaches to fade.
How it works
Three steps, in order. No black box, and no numbers we have not earned yet.
Read the full Vegas prop ladder
We pull every alternate line a book will price on a player, not just the headline number. That ladder is the market's whole opinion, with real money behind it.
Build the distribution
We strip the vig, smooth the ladder into a clean probability curve, and simulate the season into a full fantasy-point distribution. Not one projection. The whole range of outcomes.
Publish the record
Every week we log what we said and score it against what happened, in public. The accuracy record is not real until the season starts, so we do not claim one yet.
Every tool
The full toolkit, grouped the way the nav is. Everything below is live now on real, free data. Weekly and accountability surfaces run on fixtures until Week 1, when live props flip them on.
Draft and rankings
Preseason Rankings
The full board: every projected player, ADP, Nova budgets, DNA, VORP, outcome bands, 4 formats.
Draft Room
Survival-odds pick assistant. Best available by VORP, tier cliffs, and the odds a player returns to you.
Mock Draft
Full snake draft against AI opponents across the whole pool. Nova recommends each pick.
Rookie Board
The 2026 class ranked by draft-capital prior, with the pick curve.
Handcuff Finder
Lead backs paired to their backups, with high-value handcuffs flagged.
Strength of Schedule
Team-by-position SOS heatmap, early and playoff-week windows.
Bye Planner
Every team's bye plus a roster bye-week conflict grid.
Cheat Sheet
Printable tiered position board with the tier cliffs drawn in.
Values and Reaches
Where Nova disagrees with ADP: the biggest sleepers and the biggest reaches.
Scarcity Curve
VORP dropoff by position so you can see exactly where each cliffs.
Stack Finder
Best QB plus pass-catcher stacks to draft for correlated ceilings.
In-season
Weekly
Projections, start/sit, flex ranker, and the slate dashboard. On fixtures until Week 1.
Lineup Optimizer
Build a roster, get the optimal starting lineup and full-roster start/sit.
Waiver Wire
Rest-of-season pickups and streamers, scored by value and upside.
Injury Watch
The daily Sleeper injury poll, surfaced for your board.
Trending
Most-added and most-dropped players across Sleeper, with Nova context.
Scenarios
How each game environment (shootout, weather, pace) shifts every position.
Scores
The NFL schedule and live game state, plus game weather when it is in range.
Tools
Connect League
Pull your real Sleeper roster and scoring, resolved to Nova's numbers.
Lineup Optimizer
The optimal lineup and start/sit for any roster you build.
Compare
Players side by side: budgets, bands, DNA, and where Nova splits from ADP.
Trade Analyzer
Grade a trade you are considering by value over replacement.
Trade Finder
Suggests value-positive trades from your surplus to your needs.
What-If
Stack scenarios on a player and watch the whole distribution move.
My League
Your exact scoring and roster rules genuinely reorder the board.
Teams
All 32 teams with depth charts, projections, byes, and schedule strength.
Roster Report Card
Build a roster and get a graded analysis: strength, depth, byes, floor/ceiling.
Export
Download the board as CSV or JSON with the format, positions, and columns you pick.
Research
Divergence Watch
Nova versus the market, ranked by disagreement, with the reasoning.
Signal Library
72 historical situational signals across 6 seasons, each with sample size.
Armchair QB
Plot any metric against any other. Scatter, correlation, custom tables, leaders.
Floor / Ceiling
Safest floors, highest ceilings, and the biggest boom/bust spreads.
Ask Nova
Ask the board anything in plain English. Turns on with an API key.
Opportunity
2025 usage leaderboards: target share, WOPR, snap share, red-zone touches.
Consistency
2025 week-to-week scoring: who was steady versus boom/bust, with sparklines.
The four engines
Every Nova number is the output of four layers. Each one ships only after it beats a market-only baseline out-of-sample. Status is live and honest:
Vegas Signal
Full alt-ladder → de-vig → smooth CDF → Monte Carlo → PPR distribution. The weekly engine core is built and tested on archived prop fixtures. Live props arrive in September.
Season Budget · Nova side
Bottom-up Nova season budgets (per-game rate × expected games, age-adjusted) are live, shipped after beating the ADP baseline in 2023 and 2024 out-of-sample backtests. The Vegas budget and divergence attach with the season-props capture.
DNA Grade
Volatility identity (S+ through X) from three seasons of game logs, graded on residual volatility vs. position peers at the same scoring level, so low scorers aren’t punished mechanically. 283 players graded. On the rankings board now.
Situation IQ
The Historical Signal Library is live on /research: 72 signals across 6 seasons, each with sample size and confidence tier. Market-residualization is pending, so we never double-count what Vegas already priced.