Nico Collins
WRHOU · bye 8DNA BNova projection
220season budget (pts)
15.15
PPR / game
27
Nova rank
T5
tier
57.6
VORP
Market
23.7
ADP · 2.12
15-32
draft range
12
expert ECR
9-26
expert range
-3
Nova vs market rank
-3
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
82
floor (P10)
220
median (budget)
376
ceiling (P90)
25%
P(tier-1 season)
44%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR13-WR56
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.937x position norm · 42 games · 16.6 mean PPR
Market coverage
-1
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Nico Collins is Nova's 27th-ranked player overall (WR, HOU), in Tier 5. Nova projects roughly 220 points this season, about 15.15 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 24, Nova 27).
Nova gives him about a 25% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 82 points (floor) to 376 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 27 | T5 | 57.6 | 25% | WR13-WR56 | 82.2-375.7 |
| Half PPR | 26 | T5 | 49.3 | 26% | WR12-WR54 | 69.2-316.2 |
| Standard | 28 | T6 | 44.3 | 28% | WR11-WR51 | 56.2-256.7 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 36 | T8 | 55.6 | 25% | WR13-WR56 | 82.2-375.7 |
Nova season stat lines14.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1076.1 |
| Receptions | 69.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.4 |
| Rushing Yards | 9.1 |
2025 usage profile15 games
77%
snap share
8
targets / game
24%
team target share
35%
air yards share
0.609
WOPR (opportunity)
4.7
receptions / game
59%
catch rate
9.3
yards / target
101.9
air yards / game
20
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+0.1
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+4.1
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
4
broken tackles forced
4
rush yards before contact / g
3.5
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
0.7%
drop rate
100.2
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 48% over | 6.4 | -1.5% |
| Receiving Yards | 1074.5 | 50% over | 1076.1 | +0.1% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | HOU vs LA | 3-25-0 (5 tgt) | 5.5 |
| W2 | HOU vs TB | 3-52-1 (9 tgt) | 14.2 |
| W3 | HOU vs JAX | 8-104-1 (11 tgt) | 22.4 |
| W4 | HOU vs TEN | 4-79-0 (6 tgt) | 11.9 |
| W5 | HOU vs BAL | 4-52-1 (5 tgt), 1-8 rush | 16.0 |
| W7 | HOU vs SEA | 4-27-0 (10 tgt) | 6.7 |
| W9 | HOU vs DEN | 7-75-0 (11 tgt) | 14.5 |
| W10 | HOU vs JAX | 7-136-0 (15 tgt) | 22.6 |
| W11 | HOU vs TEN | 9-92-1 (10 tgt) | 24.2 |
| W12 | HOU vs BUF | 3-55-0 (3 tgt) | 8.5 |
| W13 | HOU vs IND | 5-98-0 (10 tgt), 1-7 rush | 21.5 |
| W14 | HOU vs KC | 4-121-0 (8 tgt) | 16.1 |
| W15 | HOU vs ARI | 3-85-2 (4 tgt) | 23.5 |
| W16 | HOU vs LV | 4-59-0 (9 tgt) | 9.9 |
| W17 | HOU vs LAC | 3-57-0 (4 tgt) | 8.7 |