Tetairoa McMillan
WRCAR · bye 5DNA SNova projection
211season budget (pts)
12.73
PPR / game
35
Nova rank
T6
tier
48.9
VORP
Market
32.6
ADP · 3.09
23-41
draft range
31
expert ECR
18-51
expert range
0
Nova vs market rank
0
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
80
floor (P10)
211
median (budget)
362
ceiling (P90)
23%
P(tier-1 season)
42%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR13-WR57
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.902x position norm · 17 games · 12.55 mean PPR
Market coverage
+9
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Tetairoa McMillan is Nova's 35th-ranked player overall (WR, CAR), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 211 points this season, about 12.73 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 33, Nova 35).
Nova gives him about a 23% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 80 points (floor) to 362 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +9). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 35 | T6 | 48.9 | 23% | WR13-WR57 | 80.4-361.7 |
| Half PPR | 36 | T5 | 40.7 | 24% | WR13-WR55 | 67.2-302.2 |
| Standard | 35 | T7 | 35.7 | 26% | WR12-WR54 | 54-242.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 44 | T8 | 46.9 | 23% | WR13-WR57 | 80.4-361.7 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 998.2 |
| Receptions | 69.4 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.9 |
| Rushing Yards | 1.4 |
2025 usage profile17 games
87%
snap share
7.2
targets / game
26%
team target share
46%
air yards share
0.708
WOPR (opportunity)
4.1
receptions / game
57%
catch rate
8.3
yards / target
82.9
air yards / game
15
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3.7
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
8
drops
8.6%
drop rate
79.1
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 49% over | 6.9 | +6.2% |
| Receiving Yards | 949.5 | 50% over | 998.2 | +5.1% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CAR vs JAX | 5-68-0 (9 tgt) | 11.8 |
| W2 | CAR vs ARI | 6-100-0 (10 tgt) | 16.0 |
| W3 | CAR vs ATL | 3-48-0 (8 tgt) | 7.8 |
| W4 | CAR vs NE | 4-62-0 (8 tgt) | 10.2 |
| W5 | CAR vs MIA | 6-73-0 (8 tgt) | 13.3 |
| W6 | CAR vs DAL | 3-29-2 (5 tgt) | 17.9 |
| W7 | CAR vs NYJ | 3-33-0 (5 tgt) | 6.3 |
| W8 | CAR vs BUF | 7-99-0 (10 tgt) | 16.9 |
| W9 | CAR vs GB | 4-46-0 (6 tgt) | 8.6 |
| W10 | CAR vs NO | 5-60-0 (8 tgt) | 11.0 |
| W11 | CAR vs ATL | 8-130-2 (12 tgt) | 33.0 |
| W12 | CAR vs SF | 2-35-1 (7 tgt) | 11.5 |
| W13 | CAR vs LA | 1-43-1 (2 tgt) | 11.3 |
| W15 | CAR vs NO | 2-25-0 (4 tgt) | 4.5 |
| W16 | CAR vs TB | 6-73-1 (10 tgt) | 19.3 |
| W17 | CAR vs SEA | 1-5-0 (4 tgt) | 1.5 |
| W18 | CAR vs TB | 4-85-0 (6 tgt) | 12.5 |