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Tetairoa McMillan

WRCAR · bye 5DNA S

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Nova projection
211season budget (pts)
12.73
PPR / game
35
Nova rank
T6
tier
48.9
VORP
Market
32.6
ADP · 3.09
23-41
draft range
31
expert ECR
18-51
expert range
0
Nova vs market rank
0
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
21180floor P10362ceiling P90
80
floor (P10)
211
median (budget)
362
ceiling (P90)
23%
P(tier-1 season)
42%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR13-WR57
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.902x position norm · 17 games · 12.55 mean PPR
Market coverage
+9
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Nova above marketEarly SOS 18Playoff SOS 11.3Bye 5

Tetairoa McMillan is Nova's 35th-ranked player overall (WR, CAR), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 211 points this season, about 12.73 per game.

Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 33, Nova 35).

Nova gives him about a 23% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 80 points (floor) to 362 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +9). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR35T648.923%WR13-WR5780.4-361.7
Half PPR36T540.724%WR13-WR5567.2-302.2
Standard35T735.726%WR12-WR5454-242.6
2QB / Superflex44T846.923%WR13-WR5780.4-361.7

Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards998.2
Receptions69.4
Receiving TDs6.9
Rushing Yards1.4

2025 usage profile17 games

87%
snap share
7.2
targets / game
26%
team target share
46%
air yards share
0.708
WOPR (opportunity)
4.1
receptions / game
57%
catch rate
8.3
yards / target
82.9
air yards / game
15
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3.7
TD pace vs position (7 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

2
broken tackles forced
8
drops
8.6%
drop rate
79.1
passer rating when targeted

Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection

StatDK lineMarket leanNovaΔ%
Receiving TDs6.549% over6.9+6.2%
Receiving Yards949.550% over998.2+5.1%

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1CAR vs JAX5-68-0 (9 tgt)11.8
W2CAR vs ARI6-100-0 (10 tgt)16.0
W3CAR vs ATL3-48-0 (8 tgt)7.8
W4CAR vs NE4-62-0 (8 tgt)10.2
W5CAR vs MIA6-73-0 (8 tgt)13.3
W6CAR vs DAL3-29-2 (5 tgt)17.9
W7CAR vs NYJ3-33-0 (5 tgt)6.3
W8CAR vs BUF7-99-0 (10 tgt)16.9
W9CAR vs GB4-46-0 (6 tgt)8.6
W10CAR vs NO5-60-0 (8 tgt)11.0
W11CAR vs ATL8-130-2 (12 tgt)33.0
W12CAR vs SF2-35-1 (7 tgt)11.5
W13CAR vs LA1-43-1 (2 tgt)11.3
W15CAR vs NO2-25-0 (4 tgt)4.5
W16CAR vs TB6-73-1 (10 tgt)19.3
W17CAR vs SEA1-5-0 (4 tgt)1.5
W18CAR vs TB4-85-0 (6 tgt)12.5