Scenarios

Game scripts move projections before a single snap. Pick a scenario, shootout, blowout, bad weather, short week, and see how it shifts median, ceiling, and floor by position, with the historical sample and confidence tier behind each number.

ℹEffect multipliers from the historical signal library where a measured effect exists; directional estimates elsewhere, labeled as such. Raw historical splits are partially priced into Vegas already; residual versions arrive with prop history.

What do these terms mean?

Measured / Directional

Measured means the effect is backed by a historical signal with a real sample size. Directional (or Estimate) means a reasoned estimate not yet backed by a measured signal, so treat it with caution.

Scenario multiplier

How much a game scenario shifts a position's median, ceiling, or floor, shown as a percent change versus a neutral baseline game.

Strong / Moderate / Thin

Confidence in a signal by sample size: Strong is well-supported, Thin is suggestive only.

Pick a game scenario:

High game total (47.5+): pace and pass volume up

Measured effect

Backed by a historical signal with a sample size and tier below.

QBSTRONG

Median+3.2%

Ceiling+5.1%Floor+1.9%

historical signal (n=1002, STRONG)

RBSTRONG

Median+0.7%

Ceiling+1.1%Floor+0.4%

historical signal (n=1767, STRONG)

WRSTRONG

Median+1.8%

Ceiling+2.9%Floor+1.1%

historical signal (n=2848, STRONG)

TESTRONG

Median+1.5%

Ceiling+2.4%Floor+0.9%

historical signal (n=1070, STRONG)