Weekly Projections · preview

This is the in-season surface: every player’s full probability distribution, built from the live betting market and locked to the ledger before kickoff.

⚠FIXTURE MODE. These are NOT projections. The numbers below come from a synthetic test event (Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals) used to prove the pipeline end to end. Real player props publish in September. This page flips live when real prop snapshots exist.

What do these terms mean?

Proj PPG ★

Nova's projected fantasy points per game.

Floor (P10) ★

A low-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish below this. The safe-case number.

Ceiling (P90) ★

A high-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish above this. The upside number.

Boom / Bust ★

How wide the range of likely outcomes is. Boom = big-upside weeks, bust = weeks that sink you.

Tier-1 % ★

Nova's modeled probability he finishes as a tier-1 (elite) player at his position, from 5000 simulated seasons.

Surprise probability

The modeled chance of an outcome far from projection, either a big beat or a total bust.

★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference and raw stats Nova is measured against.

This week’s slate

Top plays (week-winner odds)

Joe Burrow37.6%

Ja'Marr Chase30.5%

Baker Mayfield25.4%

Biggest fades (bust risk)

Rachaad White74% bust

Mike Gesicki67% bust

Cade Otton66% bust

Most fragile

Joe BurrowTD dependent

Baker MayfieldTD dependent

Chase BrownTD dependent

Start / Sit

The verdict is not a ranking comparison. It is the share of thousands of simulated games in which one player outscores the other, computed from both full distributions. Same medians can still be a 60/40 call.

START

Baker Mayfield

over Bucky Irving83%

STRONG START · wins 83.1% of simulated games · typical margin +9.4 PPR (range -3.4 to +22.2)

✓median edge +10.9 PPR (19.5 vs 8.7)
✓safer floor (10.6 vs 3.8 P10)
✓higher ceiling (30.5 vs 19.7 P90)
✓boom edge (48% vs 9% for 20+)
✓lower bust risk (8% vs 54%)
✓deeper market backing (conf 0.723 vs 0.25)

Flex ranker

Choose up to six players for one flex spot. The ranking is the share of simulated weeks each finishes as the highest scorer of the group, from every player’s full distribution. Start the one most likely to be your best, which is not always the highest median.

Start	Player	Pos	Median	P(best of group)
START	Baker Mayfield	QB	19.5	78%
2	Bucky Irving	RB	8.7	14%
3	Cade Otton	TE	7.6	8%

Player distributions

Baker Mayfield

19.5median PPR · modeled range

TD dependent 41%MODERATE CONF · 0.723

expected 20.2 (mean):Pass yards 9.4Pass TDs 7.2Rush yards 2.2Rush TDs 1.4

041.4 PPR

10.6 – 30.5

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

48%

boom (20+ PPR)

bust (<10 PPR)

22%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

24% beat proj by 30%+20.5% miss by 30%+25.4% week-winning score (25+)0.4% complete bust (<5)

Bucky Irving

8.7median PPR · modeled range

thin marketLOW CONF · 0.25

expected 10.8 (mean):Rushing yards 6.9Receptions 0.0Touchdowns 3.8

028.6 PPR

3.8 – 19.7

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

boom (20+ PPR)

54%

bust (<10 PPR)

47%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

43.7% beat proj by 30%+29.9% miss by 30%+2.8% week-winning score (25+)19.1% complete bust (<5)

Cade Otton

7.6median PPR · modeled range

thin marketMODERATE CONF · 0.732

expected 8.8 (mean):Receiving yards 3.6Receptions 3.6Touchdowns 1.6

026.6 PPR

2.3 – 16.8

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

boom (20+ PPR)

66%

bust (<10 PPR)

24%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

34.6% beat proj by 30%+32.2% miss by 30%+1.4% week-winning score (25+)29.5% complete bust (<5)

Chase Brown

11.2median PPR · full-market range

TD dependent 36%HIGH CONF · 0.981

expected 13.0 (mean):Rushing yards 8.2Receptions 0.0Touchdowns 4.7

045.2 PPR

3.2 – 24.9

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

19%

boom (20+ PPR)

47%

bust (<10 PPR)

55%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

38.7% beat proj by 30%+38.3% miss by 30%+9.9% week-winning score (25+)21.4% complete bust (<5)

Chris Godwin

10.8median PPR · modeled range

thin marketMODERATE CONF · 0.732

expected 12.1 (mean):Receiving yards 5.4Receptions 4.7Touchdowns 2.1

033.4 PPR

3.7 – 21.6

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

15%

boom (20+ PPR)

43%

bust (<10 PPR)

30%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

35.3% beat proj by 30%+29.1% miss by 30%+5.3% week-winning score (25+)17.7% complete bust (<5)

Emeka Egbuka

10.2median PPR · modeled range

thin marketLOW CONF · 0.25

expected 11.3 (mean):Receiving yards 4.9Receptions 4.5Touchdowns 1.9

029.6 PPR

4.1 – 19.9

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

10%

boom (20+ PPR)

49%

bust (<10 PPR)

27%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

32% beat proj by 30%+27% miss by 30%+2.7% week-winning score (25+)14.4% complete bust (<5)

Ja'Marr Chase

18.4median PPR · full-market range

HIGH CONF · 0.982

expected 20.6 (mean):Receiving yards 9.2Receptions 6.9Touchdowns 4.5

059.1 PPR

7.3 – 35.9

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

45%

boom (20+ PPR)

18%

bust (<10 PPR)

53%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

34% beat proj by 30%+28.7% miss by 30%+30.5% week-winning score (25+)4.5% complete bust (<5)

Joe Burrow

22.2median PPR · full-market range

TD dependent 45%HIGH CONF · 0.973

expected 22.9 (mean):Pass yards 10.7Pass TDs 9.7Rush yards 1.7Rush TDs 0.8

046.9 PPR

12.3 – 34.6

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

60%

boom (20+ PPR)

bust (<10 PPR)

13%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

23.1% beat proj by 30%+20.6% miss by 30%+37.6% week-winning score (25+)1% complete bust (<5)

Mike Evans

12.4median PPR · full-market range

HIGH CONF · 0.982

expected 14.8 (mean):Receiving yards 6.9Receptions 4.5Touchdowns 3.4

048.8 PPR

4.8 – 26.7

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

24%

boom (20+ PPR)

37%

bust (<10 PPR)

43%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

36.5% beat proj by 30%+28.4% miss by 30%+12.1% week-winning score (25+)10.7% complete bust (<5)

Mike Gesicki

7.8median PPR · full-market range

HIGH CONF · 0.982

expected 10.1 (mean):Receiving yards 5.1Receptions 3.6Touchdowns 1.4

043.6 PPR

2.6 – 20.3

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

10%

boom (20+ PPR)

67%

bust (<10 PPR)

22%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

32.9% beat proj by 30%+30.7% miss by 30%+6.7% week-winning score (25+)27.1% complete bust (<5)

Rachaad White

5.1median PPR · modeled range

thin marketLOW CONF · 0.25

expected 6.7 (mean):Rushing yards 4.4Receptions 0.0Touchdowns 2.3

023.6 PPR

0.8 – 14.0

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

boom (20+ PPR)

74%

bust (<10 PPR)

33%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

38.5% beat proj by 30%+33.6% miss by 30%+0.8% week-winning score (25+)49.1% complete bust (<5)

Tee Higgins

12.7median PPR · full-market range

HIGH CONF · 0.982

expected 14.9 (mean):Receiving yards 7.2Receptions 4.5Touchdowns 3.2

048.9 PPR

5.0 – 26.6

floor–ceiling (P10–P90)

24%

boom (20+ PPR)

35%

bust (<10 PPR)

41%

anytime TD (no-vig)

Surprise probability

35.4% beat proj by 30%+28% miss by 30%+12.1% week-winning score (25+)10% complete bust (<5)

Weekly Projections · preview

This week’s slate

Start / Sit

Baker Mayfield+

Flex ranker

Player distributions

Baker Mayfield

Bucky Irving

Cade Otton

Chase Brown

Chris Godwin

Emeka Egbuka

Ja'Marr Chase

Joe Burrow

Mike Evans

Mike Gesicki

Rachaad White

Tee Higgins

Baker Mayfield