Courtland Sutton
WRDEN · bye 10DNA S+Nova projection
190season budget (pts)
11.75
PPR / game
57
Nova rank
T6
tier
29.3
VORP
Market
70.2
ADP · 6.10
52-86
draft range
78
expert ECR
50-98
expert range
+13
Nova vs market rank
+13
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
73
floor (P10)
190
median (budget)
324
ceiling (P90)
18%
P(tier-1 season)
35%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR17-WR66
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.838x position norm · 49 games · 13.27 mean PPR
Market coverage
+9
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Courtland Sutton is Nova's 57th-ranked player overall (WR, DEN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 190 points this season, about 11.75 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 70, Nova 57).
Nova gives him about a 18% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 73 points (floor) to 324 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +9). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 57 | T6 | 29.3 | 18% | WR17-WR66 | 72.8-324 |
| Half PPR | 55 | T5 | 24.1 | 18% | WR17-WR65 | 60.7-270.3 |
| Standard | 58 | T7 | 22.1 | 19% | WR16-WR63 | 48.7-216.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 64 | T8 | 27.3 | 18% | WR17-WR66 | 72.8-324 |
Nova season stat lines16.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 854.1 |
| Receptions | 63.4 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.8 |
| Passing Yards | 7.6 |
2025 usage profile17 games
85%
snap share
7.3
targets / game
21%
team target share
34%
air yards share
0.557
WOPR (opportunity)
4.4
receptions / game
60%
catch rate
8.2
yards / target
90.7
air yards / game
20
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+0
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3.7
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
8
drops
5.4%
drop rate
90.7
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 53% over | 6.8 | +4.6% |
| Receiving Yards | 799.5 | 50% over | 854.1 | +6.8% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DEN vs TEN | 6-61-1 (9 tgt) | 18.1 |
| W2 | DEN vs IND | 1-6-0 (4 tgt) | 1.6 |
| W3 | DEN vs LAC | 6-118-1 (8 tgt) | 23.8 |
| W4 | DEN vs CIN | 5-81-1 (6 tgt) | 19.1 |
| W5 | DEN vs PHI | 8-99-0 (10 tgt) | 17.9 |
| W6 | DEN vs NYJ | 1-17-0 (3 tgt) | 2.7 |
| W7 | DEN vs NYG | 6-87-0 (10 tgt) | 16.7 |
| W8 | DEN vs DAL | 4-67-0 (6 tgt) | 10.7 |
| W9 | DEN vs HOU | 1-30-1 (6 tgt) | 10.0 |
| W10 | DEN vs LV | 3-24-0 (4 tgt) | 5.4 |
| W11 | DEN vs KC | 4-59-0 (8 tgt) | 9.9 |
| W13 | DEN vs WAS | 5-62-1 (6 tgt) | 17.2 |
| W14 | DEN vs LV | 6-62-0 (10 tgt) | 12.2 |
| W15 | DEN vs GB | 7-113-1 (10 tgt) | 24.3 |
| W16 | DEN vs JAX | 6-86-1 (12 tgt) | 20.6 |
| W17 | DEN vs KC | 4-40-0 (10 tgt) | 8.0 |
| W18 | DEN vs LAC | 1-5-0 (2 tgt) | 1.5 |