Ja'Marr Chase
WRCIN · bye 6DNA XNova projection
312season budget (pts)
19.41
PPR / game
4
Nova rank
T2
tier
150.8
VORP
Market
3.8
ADP · 1.04
1-6
draft range
3
expert ECR
2-6
expert range
0
Nova vs market rank
0
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
122
floor (P10)
312
median (budget)
534
ceiling (P90)
49%
P(tier-1 season)
69%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR5-WR31
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
X · Extreme boom/bust
volatility 1.225x position norm · 49 games · 19.99 mean PPR
Market coverage
-0
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Ja'Marr Chase is Nova's 4th-ranked player overall (WR, CIN), in Tier 2. Nova projects roughly 312 points this season, about 19.41 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 4, Nova 4).
Nova gives him about a 49% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 122 points (floor) to 534 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades X (Extreme boom/bust). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 4 | T2 | 150.8 | 49% | WR5-WR31 | 121.5-534.2 |
| Half PPR | 4 | T4 | 120.4 | 49% | WR5-WR31 | 99.4-437 |
| Standard | 9 | T4 | 93.2 | 48% | WR5-WR32 | 77.3-339.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 5 | T1 | 148.8 | 49% | WR5-WR31 | 121.5-534.2 |
Nova season stat lines16.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1379.8 |
| Receptions | 113.8 |
| Receiving TDs | 9.9 |
| Rushing Yards | 15 |
2025 usage profile16 games
94%
snap share
11.6
targets / game
32%
team target share
37%
air yards share
0.737
WOPR (opportunity)
7.8
receptions / game
68%
catch rate
7.6
yards / target
98.1
air yards / game
22
red-zone opportunities (7 TDs)
+2.6
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+4.9
TD pace vs position (8 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
6
broken tackles forced
3.3
rush yards before contact / g
1.3
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
1.8%
drop rate
92.1
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 10.5 | 45% over | 9.9 | -5.7% |
| Receiving Yards | 1324.5 | 50% over | 1379.8 | +4.2% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CIN vs CLE | 2-26-0 (5 tgt) | 4.6 |
| W2 | CIN vs JAX | 14-165-1 (16 tgt) | 36.5 |
| W3 | CIN vs MIN | 5-50-0 (6 tgt), 1-9 rush | 8.9 |
| W4 | CIN vs DEN | 5-23-0 (8 tgt) | 7.3 |
| W5 | CIN vs DET | 6-110-2 (10 tgt) | 29.0 |
| W6 | CIN vs GB | 10-94-1 (12 tgt), 1--3 rush | 25.1 |
| W7 | CIN vs PIT | 16-161-1 (23 tgt) | 38.1 |
| W8 | CIN vs NYJ | 12-91-0 (19 tgt) | 21.1 |
| W9 | CIN vs CHI | 6-111-0 (8 tgt) | 17.1 |
| W11 | CIN vs PIT | 3-30-0 (10 tgt) | 6.0 |
| W13 | CIN vs BAL | 7-110-0 (14 tgt) | 18.0 |
| W14 | CIN vs BUF | 5-44-0 (8 tgt), 1-8 rush | 10.2 |
| W15 | CIN vs BAL | 10-132-0 (16 tgt) | 23.2 |
| W16 | CIN vs MIA | 9-109-0 (11 tgt) | 19.9 |
| W17 | CIN vs ARI | 7-60-2 (9 tgt) | 25.0 |
| W18 | CIN vs CLE | 8-96-1 (10 tgt) | 23.6 |