Colston Loveland
TECHI · bye 10DNA XNova projection
173season budget (pts)
10.89
PPR / game
45
Nova rank
T6
tier
34
VORP
Market
44.8
ADP · 4.09
31-58
draft range
37
expert ECR
16-94
expert range
0
Nova vs market rank
0
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
65
floor (P10)
173
median (budget)
279
ceiling (P90)
24%
P(tier-1 season)
43%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE7-TE27
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
X · Extreme boom/bust
volatility 1.282x position norm · 16 games · 10.32 mean PPR
Market coverage
+1
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Colston Loveland is Nova's 45th-ranked player overall (TE, CHI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 173 points this season, about 10.89 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 45, Nova 45).
Nova gives him about a 24% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 65 points (floor) to 279 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades X (Extreme boom/bust). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 45 | T6 | 34 | 24% | TE7-TE27 | 65.1-279.4 |
| Half PPR | 51 | T5 | 28.1 | 26% | TE6-TE26 | 53.6-229.9 |
| Standard | 53 | T7 | 23.6 | 28% | TE6-TE25 | 42-180.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 54 | T8 | 34 | 24% | TE7-TE27 | 65.1-279.4 |
Nova season stat lines15.8 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 743.4 |
| Receptions | 61.1 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.2 |
2025 usage profile16 games
65%
snap share
5.1
targets / game
17%
team target share
16%
air yards share
0.363
WOPR (opportunity)
3.6
receptions / game
71%
catch rate
8.7
yards / target
46.6
air yards / game
16
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+0.9
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3
TD pace vs position (6 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
4
broken tackles forced
-2
rush yards before contact / g
0
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
0.6%
drop rate
102.2
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 49% over | 6.2 | +12.7% |
| Receiving Yards | 799.5 | 50% over | 743.4 | -7% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CHI vs MIN | 2-12-0 (2 tgt) | 3.2 |
| W2 | CHI vs DET | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W3 | CHI vs DAL | 1-31-0 (3 tgt) | 4.1 |
| W6 | CHI vs WAS | 2-11-0 (3 tgt) | 3.1 |
| W7 | CHI vs NO | 3-24-0 (4 tgt) | 5.4 |
| W8 | CHI vs BAL | 3-38-0 (5 tgt) | 6.8 |
| W9 | CHI vs CIN | 6-118-2 (7 tgt) | 29.8 |
| W10 | CHI vs NYG | 4-55-0 (4 tgt) | 9.5 |
| W11 | CHI vs MIN | 3-40-0 (4 tgt) | 7.0 |
| W12 | CHI vs PIT | 4-49-1 (5 tgt) | 14.9 |
| W13 | CHI vs PHI | 3-28-0 (6 tgt) | 5.8 |
| W14 | CHI vs GB | 4-29-1 (5 tgt) | 12.9 |
| W15 | CHI vs CLE | 4-63-0 (5 tgt), 1--2 rush | 10.1 |
| W16 | CHI vs GB | 3-30-0 (5 tgt) | 6.0 |
| W17 | CHI vs SF | 6-94-1 (10 tgt) | 21.4 |
| W18 | CHI vs DET | 10-91-1 (13 tgt) | 25.1 |