Trevor Lawrence
QBJAX · bye 7DNA BNova projection
273season budget (pts)
18.26
PPR / game
65
Nova rank
T6
tier
24
VORP
Market
80.6
ADP · 7.09
66-108
draft range
73
expert ECR
62-104
expert range
+19
Nova vs market rank
+19
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
100
floor (P10)
273
median (budget)
488
ceiling (P90)
24%
P(tier-1 season)
43%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB7-QB29
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.991x position norm · 43 games · 17.35 mean PPR
Trevor Lawrence is Nova's 65th-ranked player overall (QB, JAX), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 273 points this season, about 18.26 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 81, well behind Nova's 65, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 24% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 100 points (floor) to 488 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 65 | T6 | 24 | 24% | QB7-QB29 | 100.1-488.4 |
| Half PPR | 57 | T5 | 24 | 24% | QB7-QB29 | 100.1-488.4 |
| Standard | 51 | T7 | 24 | 24% | QB7-QB29 | 100.1-488.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 26 | T7 | 72.5 | 24% | QB7-QB29 | 100.1-488.4 |
Nova season stat lines14.9 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 291.4 |
| Rushing TDs | 6.2 |
| Passing Yards | 3531.3 |
| Passing TDs | 22.7 |
2025 usage profile17 games
97%
snap share
4.8
carries / game
17%
team carry share
4.4
yards / carry
24
red-zone opportunities (9 TDs)
+6.1
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+14.6
TD pace vs position (38 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
5
broken tackles forced
16
rush yards before contact / g
5.1
rush yards after contact / g
140
times pressured
20.8%
pressure rate faced
158
times blitzed
41
times sacked
59
times hurried
40
times hit
13.8%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | JAX vs CAR | 178-1-1 pass, 4-12-0 rush | 10.3 |
| W2 | JAX vs CIN | 271-3-2 pass, 2-4-0 rush | 19.2 |
| W3 | JAX vs HOU | 222-0-1 pass, 2-9-0 rush | 7.8 |
| W4 | JAX vs SF | 174-1-0 pass, 7-7-0 rush | 11.7 |
| W5 | JAX vs KC | 221-1-1 pass, 10-54-2 rush | 26.2 |
| W6 | JAX vs SEA | 258-2-0 pass, 3-9-0 rush | 19.2 |
| W7 | JAX vs LA | 296-1-0 pass, 2-18-0 rush | 17.6 |
| W9 | JAX vs LV | 220-0-1 pass, 9-24-2 rush | 21.2 |
| W10 | JAX vs HOU | 158-1-1 pass, 5-35-0 rush | 9.8 |
| W11 | JAX vs LAC | 153-1-1 pass, 5-9-1 rush | 15.0 |
| W12 | JAX vs ARI | 256-3-3 pass, 5-29-0 rush | 17.1 |
| W13 | JAX vs TEN | 229-2-0 pass, 3-25-0 rush | 21.7 |
| W14 | JAX vs IND | 244-2-0 pass, 4-16-0 rush | 19.4 |
| W15 | JAX vs NYJ | 330-5-0 pass, 5-51-1 rush | 44.3 |
| W16 | JAX vs DEN | 279-3-0 pass, 6-20-1 rush | 31.2 |
| W17 | JAX vs IND | 263-0-1 pass, 8-26-2 rush | 23.1 |
| W18 | JAX vs TEN | 255-3-0 pass, 2-11-0 rush | 23.3 |