Christian McCaffrey
RBSF · bye 8DNA BNova projection
276season budget (pts)
20.19
PPR / game
8
Nova rank
T3
tier
118
VORP
Market
4.8
ADP · 1.05
3-7
draft range
9
expert ECR
5-28
expert range
-3
Nova vs market rank
-3
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
74
floor (P10)
276
median (budget)
560
ceiling (P90)
43%
P(tier-1 season)
64%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB7-RB35
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.945x position norm · 37 games · 23.13 mean PPR
Market coverage
-9
divergence vs Vegas · 4 stats · directional
Christian McCaffrey is Nova's 8th-ranked player overall (RB, SF), in Tier 3. Nova projects roughly 276 points this season, about 20.19 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 5, Nova 8).
Nova gives him about a 43% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 74 points (floor) to 560 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -9). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 8 | T3 | 118 | 43% | RB7-RB35 | 74.4-560.2 |
| Half PPR | 9 | T4 | 102.3 | 41% | RB7-RB36 | 65.9-496.5 |
| Standard | 12 | T4 | 87.9 | 39% | RB7-RB36 | 57.5-432.7 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 11 | T3 | 112.8 | 43% | RB7-RB35 | 74.4-560.2 |
Nova season stat lines13.7 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 564.3 |
| Receptions | 63.1 |
| Receiving TDs | 4.4 |
| Rushing Yards | 881.2 |
| Rushing TDs | 7.2 |
2025 usage profile17 games
83%
snap share
7.6
targets / game
23%
team target share
8%
air yards share
0.405
WOPR (opportunity)
6
receptions / game
79%
catch rate
7.2
yards / target
19.7
air yards / game
18.3
carries / game
66%
team carry share
3.9
yards / carry
100
red-zone opportunities (17 TDs)
+3
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+11.8
TD pace vs position (17 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
21
broken tackles forced
42.8
rush yards before contact / g
27.9
rush yards after contact / g
8
drops
5.3%
drop rate
100.4
passer rating when targeted
0
times pressured
0%
pressure rate faced
0
times blitzed
0
times sacked
0
times hurried
0
times hit
0%
bad throw rate
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 44% over | 4.4 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 574.5 | 50% over | 564.3 | -1.8% |
| Rushing Yards | 974.5 | 48% over | 881.2 | -9.6% |
| Rushing TDs | 8.5 | 51% over | 7.2 | -15.3% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | SF vs SEA | 22-69-0 rush, 9-73 rec | 23.2 |
| W2 | SF vs NO | 13-55-0 rush, 6-52 rec | 22.7 |
| W3 | SF vs ARI | 17-52-0 rush, 10-88 rec | 24.0 |
| W4 | SF vs JAX | 17-49-0 rush, 6-92 rec | 26.1 |
| W5 | SF vs LA | 22-57-0 rush, 8-82 rec | 27.9 |
| W6 | SF vs TB | 17-54-1 rush, 7-57 rec | 24.1 |
| W7 | SF vs ATL | 24-129-2 rush, 7-72 rec | 39.1 |
| W8 | SF vs HOU | 8-25-0 rush, 3-43 rec | 9.8 |
| W9 | SF vs NYG | 28-106-1 rush, 5-67 rec | 34.3 |
| W10 | SF vs LA | 12-30-0 rush, 8-66 rec | 17.6 |
| W11 | SF vs ARI | 13-81-2 rush, 5-40 rec | 35.1 |
| W12 | SF vs CAR | 24-89-1 rush, 7-53 rec | 27.2 |
| W13 | SF vs CLE | 20-53-1 rush, 4-21 rec | 17.4 |
| W15 | SF vs TEN | 22-73-1 rush, 1-14 rec | 15.7 |
| W16 | SF vs IND | 21-117-0 rush, 6-29 rec | 32.6 |
| W17 | SF vs CHI | 23-140-1 rush, 4-41 rec | 28.1 |
| W18 | SF vs SEA | 8-23-0 rush, 6-34 rec | 11.7 |