Michael Pittman Jr.
WRPIT · bye 9DNA SNova projection
180season budget (pts)
11.11
PPR / game
70
Nova rank
T6
tier
17.2
VORP
Market
71.9
ADP · 6.12
54-85
draft range
112
expert ECR
70-135
expert range
+3
Nova vs market rank
+3
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
67
floor (P10)
180
median (budget)
307
ceiling (P90)
14%
P(tier-1 season)
31%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR20-WR70
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.866x position norm · 49 games · 12.66 mean PPR
Michael Pittman Jr. is Nova's 70th-ranked player overall (WR, PIT), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 180 points this season, about 11.11 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 72, Nova 70).
Nova gives him about a 14% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 67 points (floor) to 307 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 70 | T6 | 17.2 | 14% | WR20-WR70 | 66.5-307.2 |
| Half PPR | 75 | T6 | 7 | 13% | WR22-WR73 | 52.9-244.2 |
| Standard | 95 | T7 | 0 | 11% | WR24-WR76 | 39.2-181.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 80 | T8 | 15.2 | 14% | WR20-WR70 | 66.5-307.2 |
Nova season stat lines16.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 773.8 |
| Receptions | 73.4 |
| Receiving TDs | 4.7 |
2025 usage profile17 games
86%
snap share
6.5
targets / game
21%
team target share
21%
air yards share
0.457
WOPR (opportunity)
4.7
receptions / game
72%
catch rate
7.1
yards / target
53.4
air yards / game
18
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
+1.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3.7
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
6
drops
7.6%
drop rate
93.8
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 45% over | 4.7 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 774.5 | 50% over | 773.8 | -0.1% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | IND vs MIA | 6-80-1 (8 tgt) | 20.0 |
| W2 | IND vs DEN | 4-40-0 (5 tgt) | 8.0 |
| W3 | IND vs TEN | 6-73-1 (6 tgt) | 19.3 |
| W4 | IND vs LA | 5-41-1 (10 tgt) | 15.1 |
| W5 | IND vs LV | 5-39-1 (6 tgt) | 14.9 |
| W6 | IND vs ARI | 2-20-0 (3 tgt) | 4.0 |
| W7 | IND vs LAC | 7-58-1 (9 tgt) | 20.8 |
| W8 | IND vs TEN | 8-95-1 (9 tgt) | 23.5 |
| W9 | IND vs PIT | 9-115-0 (12 tgt) | 20.5 |
| W10 | IND vs ATL | 2-19-0 (2 tgt) | 3.9 |
| W12 | IND vs KC | 5-27-1 (8 tgt) | 13.7 |
| W13 | IND vs HOU | 1-13-0 (4 tgt) | 2.3 |
| W14 | IND vs JAX | 9-79-0 (12 tgt) | 16.9 |
| W15 | IND vs SEA | 3-26-0 (5 tgt) | 5.6 |
| W16 | IND vs SF | 4-32-0 (5 tgt) | 7.2 |
| W17 | IND vs JAX | 2-16-0 (3 tgt) | 3.6 |
| W18 | IND vs HOU | 2-11-0 (4 tgt) | 3.1 |