Ladd McConkey
WRLAC · bye 7DNA SNova projection
201season budget (pts)
12.69
PPR / game
41
Nova rank
T6
tier
38.6
VORP
Market
36.6
ADP · 4.01
24-47
draft range
46
expert ECR
26-69
expert range
-3
Nova vs market rank
-3
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
77
floor (P10)
201
median (budget)
334
ceiling (P90)
19%
P(tier-1 season)
37%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR16-WR62
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.893x position norm · 32 games · 13.18 mean PPR
Market coverage
+15
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Ladd McConkey is Nova's 41st-ranked player overall (WR, LAC), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 201 points this season, about 12.69 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 37, Nova 41).
Nova gives him about a 19% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 77 points (floor) to 334 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +15). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 41 | T6 | 38.6 | 19% | WR16-WR62 | 77.2-334.1 |
| Half PPR | 47 | T5 | 29.5 | 19% | WR16-WR62 | 63.5-274.8 |
| Standard | 52 | T7 | 23.6 | 19% | WR16-WR61 | 49.8-215.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 52 | T8 | 36.6 | 19% | WR16-WR62 | 77.2-334.1 |
Nova season stat lines15.8 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 913.4 |
| Receptions | 71.2 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.3 |
2025 usage profile16 games
78%
snap share
6.6
targets / game
21%
team target share
26%
air yards share
0.499
WOPR (opportunity)
4.1
receptions / game
62%
catch rate
7.4
yards / target
65.4
air yards / game
15
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+2.9
TD pace vs position (6 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
5
broken tackles forced
6
drops
5.1%
drop rate
85.3
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 53% over | 6.3 | +14.5% |
| Receiving Yards | 849.5 | 50% over | 913.4 | +7.5% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LAC vs KC | 6-74-0 (9 tgt) | 13.4 |
| W2 | LAC vs LV | 5-48-0 (5 tgt) | 9.8 |
| W3 | LAC vs DEN | 4-41-0 (7 tgt) | 8.1 |
| W4 | LAC vs NYG | 1-11-0 (6 tgt) | 2.1 |
| W5 | LAC vs WAS | 5-39-1 (7 tgt) | 14.9 |
| W6 | LAC vs MIA | 7-100-1 (9 tgt) | 23.0 |
| W7 | LAC vs IND | 9-67-0 (15 tgt) | 15.7 |
| W8 | LAC vs MIN | 6-88-1 (10 tgt) | 20.8 |
| W9 | LAC vs TEN | 4-56-0 (6 tgt) | 9.6 |
| W10 | LAC vs PIT | 4-107-1 (6 tgt) | 20.7 |
| W11 | LAC vs JAX | 3-13-0 (4 tgt) | 4.3 |
| W13 | LAC vs LV | 4-39-1 (6 tgt) | 13.9 |
| W14 | LAC vs PHI | 1-12-0 (5 tgt) | 2.2 |
| W15 | LAC vs KC | 2-20-0 (3 tgt) | 4.0 |
| W16 | LAC vs DAL | 4-43-1 (6 tgt) | 14.3 |
| W17 | LAC vs HOU | 1-31-0 (2 tgt) | 4.1 |