Bo Nix
QBDEN · bye 10DNA BNova projection
306season budget (pts)
18.47
PPR / game
31
Nova rank
T6
tier
52.1
VORP
Market
115.6
ADP · 10.08
67-142
draft range
100
expert ECR
73-112
expert range
+90
Nova vs market rank
+90
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
107
floor (P10)
306
median (budget)
550
ceiling (P90)
31%
P(tier-1 season)
50%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB5-QB25
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.99x position norm · 34 games · 18.3 mean PPR
Bo Nix is Nova's 31st-ranked player overall (QB, DEN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 306 points this season, about 18.47 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 116, well behind Nova's 31, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 31% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 107 points (floor) to 550 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 31 | T6 | 52.1 | 31% | QB5-QB25 | 106.5-549.9 |
| Half PPR | 25 | T5 | 51.9 | 31% | QB5-QB25 | 106.4-549.6 |
| Standard | 23 | T6 | 51.7 | 31% | QB5-QB25 | 106.4-549.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 13 | T4 | 100.5 | 31% | QB5-QB25 | 106.5-549.9 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 377 |
| Rushing TDs | 4.5 |
| Passing Yards | 3847.2 |
| Passing TDs | 26.2 |
2025 usage profile17 games
100%
snap share
4.9
carries / game
18%
team carry share
4.3
yards / carry
18
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
+2.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+6.6
TD pace vs position (30 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
0
broken tackles forced
17.3
rush yards before contact / g
3.6
rush yards after contact / g
0
drops
0%
drop rate
39.6
passer rating when targeted
128
times pressured
18.9%
pressure rate faced
115
times blitzed
22
times sacked
61
times hurried
45
times hit
16.3%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DEN vs TEN | 176-1-2 pass, 8-18-0 rush | 6.8 |
| W2 | DEN vs IND | 206-3-1 pass, 3-20-0 rush | 20.2 |
| W3 | DEN vs LAC | 153-1-0 pass, 8-33-0 rush | 13.4 |
| W4 | DEN vs CIN | 326-2-1 pass, 6-7-1 rush | 25.7 |
| W5 | DEN vs PHI | 242-1-0 pass, 3-22-0 rush | 17.9 |
| W6 | DEN vs NYJ | 174-1-0 pass, 5-24-0 rush | 13.4 |
| W7 | DEN vs NYG | 279-2-0 pass, 5-48-2 rush | 40.0 |
| W8 | DEN vs DAL | 247-4-1 pass, 1--1-0 rush | 23.8 |
| W9 | DEN vs HOU | 173-2-1 pass, 3-36-0 rush | 18.5 |
| W10 | DEN vs LV | 150-1-2 pass, 5--2-0 rush | 5.8 |
| W11 | DEN vs KC | 295-0-0 pass, 3-8-0 rush | 12.6 |
| W13 | DEN vs WAS | 321-1-1 pass, 2-16-0 rush | 16.4 |
| W14 | DEN vs LV | 212-0-0 pass, 3-15-1 rush | 16.0 |
| W15 | DEN vs GB | 302-4-0 pass, 7-10-0 rush | 29.1 |
| W16 | DEN vs JAX | 352-1-1 pass, 4-11-0 rush | 15.2 |
| W17 | DEN vs KC | 182-1-1 pass, 9-42-1 rush | 19.5 |
| W18 | DEN vs LAC | 141-0-0 pass, 8-49-0 rush | 10.5 |