Sam Darnold
QBSEA · bye 11DNA XNova projection
215season budget (pts)
13.78
PPR / game
155
Nova rank
T6
tier
-31.9
VORP
Market
144.2
ADP · 12.12
114-165
draft range
138
expert ECR
125-213
expert range
+2
Nova vs market rank
+2
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
85
floor (P10)
215
median (budget)
405
ceiling (P90)
13%
P(tier-1 season)
29%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB11-QB35
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
X · Extreme boom/bust
volatility 1.228x position norm · 44 games · 12.88 mean PPR
Sam Darnold is Nova's 155th-ranked player overall (QB, SEA), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 215 points this season, about 13.78 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 144, Nova 155).
Nova gives him about a 13% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 85 points (floor) to 405 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades X (Extreme boom/bust). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 155 | T6 | -31.9 | 13% | QB11-QB35 | 84.5-404.9 |
| Half PPR | 159 | T6 | -31.9 | 13% | QB11-QB35 | 84.5-404.9 |
| Standard | 171 | T7 | -31.9 | 13% | QB11-QB35 | 84.5-404.9 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 78 | T8 | 16.5 | 13% | QB11-QB35 | 84.5-404.9 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 120.3 |
| Passing Yards | 3355.7 |
| Passing TDs | 23.1 |
2025 usage profile17 games
96%
snap share
2.1
carries / game
7%
team carry share
2.7
yards / carry
6
red-zone opportunities (0 TDs)
-0.7
TD equity (under pace, due)
+1.6
TD pace vs position (25 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
0
broken tackles forced
7.2
rush yards before contact / g
0.7
rush yards after contact / g
109
times pressured
20.4%
pressure rate faced
149
times blitzed
27
times sacked
47
times hurried
35
times hit
13.6%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | SEA vs SF | 150-0-0 pass, 2-14-0 rush | 5.4 |
| W2 | SEA vs PIT | 295-2-2 pass | 15.8 |
| W3 | SEA vs NO | 218-2-0 pass | 16.7 |
| W4 | SEA vs ARI | 242-1-0 pass, 1-24-0 rush | 16.1 |
| W5 | SEA vs TB | 341-4-1 pass | 27.6 |
| W6 | SEA vs JAX | 295-2-0 pass, 4-2-0 rush | 20.0 |
| W7 | SEA vs HOU | 213-1-1 pass, 3-1-0 rush | 8.6 |
| W9 | SEA vs WAS | 330-4-1 pass | 27.2 |
| W10 | SEA vs ARI | 178-1-1 pass, 3--2-0 rush | 4.9 |
| W11 | SEA vs LA | 279-0-4 pass, 2-11-0 rush | 4.3 |
| W12 | SEA vs TEN | 244-2-0 pass, 1--1-0 rush | 17.7 |
| W13 | SEA vs MIN | 128-0-0 pass | 3.1 |
| W14 | SEA vs ATL | 249-3-1 pass, 3-23-0 rush | 22.3 |
| W15 | SEA vs IND | 271-0-0 pass, 4-5-0 rush | 11.3 |
| W16 | SEA vs LA | 270-2-2 pass, 3-7-0 rush | 19.5 |
| W17 | SEA vs CAR | 147-1-1 pass, 3-2-0 rush | 6.1 |
| W18 | SEA vs SF | 198-0-0 pass, 6-9-0 rush | 8.8 |