Baker Mayfield
QBTB · bye 10DNA SNova projection
280season budget (pts)
16.93
PPR / game
52
Nova rank
T6
tier
31.3
VORP
Market
120.3
ADP · 10.12
80-142
draft range
120
expert ECR
90-136
expert range
+75
Nova vs market rank
+75
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
103
floor (P10)
280
median (budget)
506
ceiling (P90)
26%
P(tier-1 season)
46%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB6-QB28
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.884x position norm · 51 games · 17.88 mean PPR
Baker Mayfield is Nova's 52nd-ranked player overall (QB, TB), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 280 points this season, about 16.93 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 120, well behind Nova's 52, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 26% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 103 points (floor) to 506 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 52 | T6 | 31.3 | 26% | QB6-QB28 | 102.8-506.1 |
| Half PPR | 45 | T5 | 31.3 | 26% | QB6-QB28 | 102.8-506.1 |
| Standard | 42 | T7 | 31.3 | 26% | QB6-QB28 | 102.8-506.1 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 23 | T6 | 79.7 | 26% | QB6-QB28 | 102.8-506.1 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 313.9 |
| Rushing TDs | 1.6 |
| Passing Yards | 3741.8 |
| Passing TDs | 28.7 |
2025 usage profile17 games
97%
snap share
3.2
carries / game
11%
team carry share
6.9
yards / carry
9
red-zone opportunities (1 TDs)
-0.1
TD equity (under pace, due)
+3.6
TD pace vs position (27 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
7
broken tackles forced
20.1
rush yards before contact / g
7.2
rush yards after contact / g
92
times pressured
14.3%
pressure rate faced
146
times blitzed
36
times sacked
36
times hurried
20
times hit
15.2%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | TB vs ATL | 167-3-0 pass, 5-39-0 rush | 22.6 |
| W2 | TB vs HOU | 215-2-0 pass, 3-33-0 rush | 19.9 |
| W3 | TB vs NYJ | 233-1-0 pass, 4-44-0 rush | 17.7 |
| W4 | TB vs PHI | 289-2-1 pass, 2-13-0 rush | 18.9 |
| W5 | TB vs SEA | 379-2-0 pass, 5-15-0 rush | 26.7 |
| W6 | TB vs SF | 256-2-0 pass, 3-14-0 rush | 19.6 |
| W7 | TB vs DET | 228-1-1 pass | 11.1 |
| W8 | TB vs NO | 152-0-0 pass | 4.1 |
| W10 | TB vs NE | 273-3-0 pass | 22.9 |
| W11 | TB vs BUF | 173-1-1 pass, 5-39-1 rush | 16.8 |
| W12 | TB vs LA | 41-1-2 pass, 4-19-0 rush | 3.5 |
| W13 | TB vs ARI | 194-1-0 pass, 6-27-0 rush | 14.5 |
| W14 | TB vs NO | 122-1-1 pass, 6-42-0 rush | 11.1 |
| W15 | TB vs ATL | 277-2-1 pass, 1-1-0 rush | 19.2 |
| W16 | TB vs CAR | 145-1-1 pass, 4-49-0 rush | 12.7 |
| W17 | TB vs MIA | 346-2-2 pass, 3-16-0 rush | 17.4 |
| W18 | TB vs CAR | 203-1-1 pass, 4-31-0 rush | 13.2 |