Alvin Kamara
RBNO · bye 8DNA BNova projection
167season budget (pts)
12.57
PPR / game
81
Nova rank
T6
tier
8.4
VORP
Market
140.5
ADP · 12.08
89-199
draft range
148
expert ECR
117-242
expert range
+69
Nova vs market rank
+69
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
46
floor (P10)
167
median (budget)
329
ceiling (P90)
17%
P(tier-1 season)
37%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB18-RB54
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 1.009x position norm · 38 games · 15.76 mean PPR
Alvin Kamara is Nova's 81st-ranked player overall (RB, NO), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 167 points this season, about 12.57 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 141, well behind Nova's 81, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 17% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 46 points (floor) to 329 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 81 | T6 | 8.4 | 17% | RB18-RB54 | 45.7-328.8 |
| Half PPR | 95 | T6 | 0 | 14% | RB19-RB56 | 39.1-281.4 |
| Standard | 115 | T7 | -7.1 | 12% | RB22-RB58 | 32.5-233.9 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 94 | T8 | 3.1 | 17% | RB18-RB54 | 45.7-328.8 |
Nova season stat lines13.3 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 326.5 |
| Receptions | 48.4 |
| Rushing Yards | 625.4 |
| Rushing TDs | 3.2 |
2025 usage profile11 games
64%
snap share
3.5
targets / game
12%
team target share
1%
air yards share
0.18
WOPR (opportunity)
3
receptions / game
85%
catch rate
4.8
yards / target
3
air yards / game
11.9
carries / game
47%
team carry share
3.6
yards / carry
20
red-zone opportunities (1 TDs)
-1.8
TD equity (under pace, due)
-2.4
TD pace vs position (1 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
9
broken tackles forced
25.6
rush yards before contact / g
17.2
rush yards after contact / g
2
drops
3%
drop rate
85
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NO vs ARI | 11-45-1 rush, 2-12 rec | 13.7 |
| W2 | NO vs SF | 21-99-0 rush, 6-21 rec | 16.0 |
| W3 | NO vs SEA | 18-42-0 rush, 1-14 rec | 6.6 |
| W4 | NO vs BUF | 15-70-0 rush, 4-2 rec | 11.2 |
| W5 | NO vs NYG | 8-27-0 rush, 4-28 rec | 9.5 |
| W6 | NO vs NE | 10-31-0 rush, 5-45 rec | 12.6 |
| W7 | NO vs CHI | 11-28-0 rush, 3-1 rec | 5.9 |
| W8 | NO vs TB | 6-21-0 rush, 2-24 rec | 6.5 |
| W9 | NO vs LA | 6-14-0 rush, 1-3 rec | 0.7 |
| W10 | NO vs CAR | 22-83-0 rush, 3-32 rec | 14.5 |
| W12 | NO vs ATL | 3-11-0 rush, 2-4 rec | 3.5 |