Dalton Kincaid
TEBUF · bye 7DNA SNova projection
128season budget (pts)
9.23
PPR / game
119
Nova rank
T6
tier
-10.7
VORP
Market
134.9
ADP · 12.03
108-163
draft range
96
expert ECR
76-130
expert range
+20
Nova vs market rank
+20
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
49
floor (P10)
128
median (budget)
210
ceiling (P90)
11%
P(tier-1 season)
24%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE13-TE37
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.864x position norm · 41 games · 9.2 mean PPR
Market coverage
+4
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Dalton Kincaid is Nova's 119th-ranked player overall (TE, BUF), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 128 points this season, about 9.23 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 135, well behind Nova's 119, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 11% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 49 points (floor) to 210 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 119 | T6 | -10.7 | 11% | TE13-TE37 | 48.5-209.7 |
| Half PPR | 119 | T6 | -10.5 | 11% | TE13-TE37 | 39.2-169.5 |
| Standard | 122 | T7 | -9 | 11% | TE12-TE36 | 29.9-129.3 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 125 | T8 | -10.7 | 11% | TE13-TE37 | 48.5-209.7 |
Nova season stat lines13.8 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 571.7 |
| Receptions | 49 |
| Receiving TDs | 3.6 |
2025 usage profile12 games
37%
snap share
4.1
targets / game
15%
team target share
21%
air yards share
0.369
WOPR (opportunity)
3.2
receptions / game
80%
catch rate
11.7
yards / target
38.8
air yards / game
9
red-zone opportunities (3 TDs)
+1.2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+2.8
TD pace vs position (5 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
1
broken tackles forced
1
drops
2.8%
drop rate
114.5
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 3.5 | 60% over | 3.6 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 549.5 | 50% over | 571.7 | +4% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BUF vs BAL | 4-48-1 (4 tgt) | 14.8 |
| W2 | BUF vs NYJ | 4-37-0 (6 tgt) | 7.7 |
| W3 | BUF vs MIA | 5-66-1 (6 tgt) | 17.6 |
| W4 | BUF vs NO | 1-28-1 (2 tgt) | 9.8 |
| W5 | BUF vs NE | 6-108-0 (6 tgt) | 16.8 |
| W8 | BUF vs CAR | 1-23-0 (3 tgt) | 3.3 |
| W9 | BUF vs KC | 6-101-1 (6 tgt) | 22.1 |
| W10 | BUF vs MIA | 2-37-0 (3 tgt) | 5.7 |
| W14 | BUF vs CIN | 4-41-1 (5 tgt) | 14.1 |
| W15 | BUF vs NE | 3-34-0 (4 tgt) | 6.4 |
| W16 | BUF vs CLE | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W18 | BUF vs NYJ | 3-48-0 (3 tgt) | 7.8 |