T.J. Hockenson
TEMIN · bye 6DNA BNova projection
122season budget (pts)
8.64
PPR / game
129
Nova rank
T6
tier
-16
VORP
Market
157.3
ADP · 14.01
110-185
draft range
214
expert ECR
154-256
expert range
+47
Nova vs market rank
+47
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
45
floor (P10)
122
median (budget)
202
ceiling (P90)
10%
P(tier-1 season)
22%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE14-TE39
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.943x position norm · 40 games · 10.46 mean PPR
T.J. Hockenson is Nova's 129th-ranked player overall (TE, MIN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 122 points this season, about 8.64 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 157, well behind Nova's 129, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 10% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 45 points (floor) to 202 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 129 | T6 | -16 | 10% | TE14-TE39 | 45.1-202.2 |
| Half PPR | 135 | T6 | -18.6 | 9% | TE15-TE40 | 35-157.1 |
| Standard | 146 | T7 | -20 | 7% | TE17-TE41 | 25-112 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 134 | T8 | -16 | 10% | TE14-TE39 | 45.1-202.2 |
Nova season stat lines14.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 528.1 |
| Receptions | 54.7 |
| Receiving TDs | 2.5 |
2025 usage profile15 games
78%
snap share
4.4
targets / game
16%
team target share
10%
air yards share
0.311
WOPR (opportunity)
3.4
receptions / game
77%
catch rate
6.6
yards / target
21.9
air yards / game
12
red-zone opportunities (3 TDs)
+0.7
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.2
TD pace vs position (3 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
0
rush yards before contact / g
0
rush yards after contact / g
3
drops
4.7%
drop rate
93.5
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | MIN vs CHI | 3-15-0 (4 tgt) | 4.5 |
| W2 | MIN vs ATL | 1-12-0 (3 tgt) | 2.2 |
| W3 | MIN vs CIN | 5-49-1 (6 tgt) | 15.9 |
| W4 | MIN vs PIT | 4-39-0 (5 tgt) | 7.9 |
| W5 | MIN vs CLE | 6-38-0 (6 tgt) | 9.8 |
| W7 | MIN vs PHI | 6-43-0 (9 tgt) | 10.3 |
| W8 | MIN vs LAC | 2-26-0 (3 tgt) | 4.6 |
| W9 | MIN vs DET | 2-11-1 (3 tgt) | 9.1 |
| W10 | MIN vs BAL | 2-8-0 (2 tgt) | 2.8 |
| W11 | MIN vs CHI | 3-39-0 (6 tgt) | 6.9 |
| W12 | MIN vs GB | 4-19-0 (4 tgt) | 5.9 |
| W13 | MIN vs SEA | 6-59-0 (6 tgt) | 11.9 |
| W14 | MIN vs WAS | 2-12-1 (3 tgt) | 9.2 |
| W15 | MIN vs DAL | 4-66-0 (5 tgt) | 10.6 |
| W16 | MIN vs NYG | 1-2-0 (1 tgt) | 1.2 |