Mark Andrews
TEBAL · bye 13DNA VNova projection
131season budget (pts)
8.44
PPR / game
113
Nova rank
T6
tier
-7.3
VORP
Market
130.0
ADP · 11.10
92-153
draft range
121
expert ECR
84-195
expert range
+21
Nova vs market rank
+21
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
49
floor (P10)
131
median (budget)
218
ceiling (P90)
12%
P(tier-1 season)
26%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE12-TE35
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.044x position norm · 44 games · 10.35 mean PPR
Market coverage
-12
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Mark Andrews is Nova's 113th-ranked player overall (TE, BAL), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 131 points this season, about 8.44 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 130, well behind Nova's 113, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 12% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 49 points (floor) to 218 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -12). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 113 | T6 | -7.3 | 12% | TE12-TE35 | 49.3-218.3 |
| Half PPR | 109 | T6 | -4.5 | 13% | TE11-TE34 | 41-181.8 |
| Standard | 98 | T7 | -0.4 | 15% | TE10-TE32 | 32.8-145.3 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 118 | T8 | -7.3 | 12% | TE12-TE35 | 49.3-218.3 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 461.9 |
| Receptions | 43.9 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.1 |
| Rushing Yards | 22 |
2025 usage profile17 games
62%
snap share
4.1
targets / game
17%
team target share
16%
air yards share
0.37
WOPR (opportunity)
2.8
receptions / game
69%
catch rate
6
yards / target
29.9
air yards / game
0.6
carries / game
2%
team carry share
4.8
yards / carry
18
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+0.6
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+2.9
TD pace vs position (6 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
0
broken tackles forced
7.2
rush yards before contact / g
0.8
rush yards after contact / g
3
drops
4.3%
drop rate
79.6
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 47% over | 6.1 | -6.2% |
| Receiving Yards | 524.5 | 50% over | 461.9 | -11.9% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BAL vs BUF | 1-5-0 (1 tgt) | 1.5 |
| W2 | BAL vs CLE | 1-2-0 (3 tgt), 1-2 rush | 1.4 |
| W3 | BAL vs DET | 6-91-2 (6 tgt) | 27.1 |
| W4 | BAL vs KC | 7-30-0 (8 tgt) | 10.0 |
| W5 | BAL vs HOU | 2-22-0 (3 tgt) | 4.2 |
| W6 | BAL vs LA | 4-24-0 (6 tgt), 3-2 rush | 6.6 |
| W8 | BAL vs CHI | 3-34-0 (3 tgt) | 6.4 |
| W9 | BAL vs MIA | 2-22-2 (3 tgt), 2-4 rush | 16.6 |
| W10 | BAL vs MIN | 3-14-1 (5 tgt) | 10.4 |
| W11 | BAL vs CLE | 3-32-0 (5 tgt), 1-35 rush | 15.7 |
| W12 | BAL vs NYJ | 1-9-0 (3 tgt), 2-2 rush | 2.1 |
| W13 | BAL vs CIN | 4-47-0 (6 tgt) | 8.7 |
| W14 | BAL vs PIT | 1-9-0 (5 tgt) | 1.9 |
| W15 | BAL vs CIN | 2-18-0 (3 tgt) | 3.8 |
| W16 | BAL vs NE | 2-21-0 (3 tgt), 1-3 rush | 4.4 |
| W17 | BAL vs GB | 4-28-0 (4 tgt) | 6.8 |
| W18 | BAL vs PIT | 2-14-0 (3 tgt) | 3.4 |