Kyler Murray
QBMIN · bye 6DNA S+Nova projection
188season budget (pts)
16.92
PPR / game
233
Nova rank
T6
tier
-70
VORP
Market
149.3
ADP · 13.05
109-180
draft range
111
expert ECR
79-146
expert range
-69
Nova vs market rank
-69
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
66
floor (P10)
188
median (budget)
334
ceiling (P90)
7%
P(tier-1 season)
18%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB16-QB44
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.737x position norm · 30 games · 17.38 mean PPR
Kyler Murray is Nova's 233rd-ranked player overall (QB, MIN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 188 points this season, about 16.92 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 149, ahead of Nova's 233.
Nova gives him about a 7% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 66 points (floor) to 334 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 233 | T6 | -70 | 7% | QB16-QB44 | 65.6-334.1 |
| Half PPR | 269 | T6 | -70 | 7% | QB16-QB44 | 65.6-334.1 |
| Standard | 372 | T7 | -70 | 7% | QB16-QB44 | 65.6-334.1 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 141 | T8 | -21.6 | 7% | QB16-QB44 | 65.6-334.1 |
Nova season stat lines11.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 354.5 |
| Rushing TDs | 3 |
| Passing Yards | 2397.9 |
| Passing TDs | 13.7 |
2025 usage profile5 games
99%
snap share
5.8
carries / game
25%
team carry share
6
yards / carry
4
red-zone opportunities (1 TDs)
+0.5
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.1
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
26
rush yards before contact / g
8.6
rush yards after contact / g
32
times pressured
16.5%
pressure rate faced
35
times blitzed
16
times sacked
7
times hurried
9
times hit
16%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ARI vs NO | 163-2-0 pass, 7-38-0 rush | 18.3 |
| W2 | ARI vs CAR | 220-1-1 pass, 7-32-0 rush | 14.0 |
| W3 | ARI vs SF | 159-1-0 pass, 6-37-0 rush | 14.1 |
| W4 | ARI vs SEA | 200-2-2 pass, 5-41-0 rush | 16.1 |
| W5 | ARI vs TEN | 220-0-0 pass, 4-25-1 rush | 15.3 |