Home
Draft
Draft War RoomPreseason RankingsMock DraftRookie BoardHandcuff FinderStrength of ScheduleBye PlannerCheat SheetValues & ReachesScarcity CurveStack Finder
In-Season
Weekly ProjectionsWaiver WireInjury WatchScenariosLineup OptimizerTrendingScores
Tools
CompareTrade AnalyzerWhat-IfMy LeagueConnect LeagueTrade FinderTeamsRoster Report CardExport
Research
Divergence WatchLine MoversSignal LibraryArmchair QBAsk NovaFloor / CeilingOpportunityConsistency
About
MethodologyAccountabilityChallenge the Model

Jalen Nailor

WRLV · bye 13DNA V

← back to rankings

Nova projection
84season budget (pts)
5.94
PPR / game
260
Nova rank
T6
tier
-78.4
VORP
Market
132.5
ADP · 11.12
111-150
draft range
213
expert ECR
120-311
expert range
-123
Nova vs market rank
-123
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
8432floor P10144ceiling P90
32
floor (P10)
84
median (budget)
144
ceiling (P90)
1%
P(tier-1 season)
3%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR69-WR122
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.096x position norm · 35 games · 6.05 mean PPR
Early SOS 10.7 (tough)Playoff SOS 17Bye 13

Jalen Nailor is Nova's 260th-ranked player overall (WR, LV), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 84 points this season, about 5.94 per game.

He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 133, ahead of Nova's 260.

Nova gives him about a 1% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 32 points (floor) to 144 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR260T6-78.41%WR69-WR12231.9-143.5
Half PPR242T6-64.11%WR66-WR12027.3-122.7
Standard219T7-46.42%WR61-WR11622.6-101.8
2QB / Superflex270T8-80.41%WR69-WR12231.9-143.5

Nova season stat lines14.2 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards358.3
Receptions24.2
Receiving TDs3.8
Rushing Yards5.7

2025 usage profile17 games

65%
snap share
3.1
targets / game
12%
team target share
17%
air yards share
0.295
WOPR (opportunity)
1.7
receptions / game
55%
catch rate
8.4
yards / target
38.6
air yards / game
13
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.7
TD pace vs position (4 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

2
broken tackles forced
0.5
rush yards before contact / g
6
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
2.9%
drop rate
68.4
passer rating when targeted

No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1MIN vs CHI1-28-0 (3 tgt)3.8
W2MIN vs ATL3-31-0 (5 tgt)6.1
W3MIN vs CIN3-37-0 (5 tgt)6.7
W4MIN vs PIT1-2-1 (4 tgt)9.2
W5MIN vs CLE3-27-0 (4 tgt), 1-15 rush7.2
W7MIN vs PHI2-37-0 (4 tgt)5.7
W8MIN vs LAC0-0-0 (1 tgt)0.0
W9MIN vs DET1-16-0 (4 tgt)2.6
W10MIN vs BAL5-124-1 (6 tgt)23.4
W11MIN vs CHI1-16-0 (1 tgt)2.6
W12MIN vs GB0-0-0 (1 tgt)0.0
W13MIN vs SEA0-0-0 (1 tgt)0.0
W14MIN vs WAS3-30-0 (3 tgt)6.0
W15MIN vs DAL3-47-2 (5 tgt), 1--2 rush19.5
W16MIN vs NYG0-0-0 (2 tgt)0.0
W17MIN vs DET0-0-0 (1 tgt)0.0
W18MIN vs GB3-49-0 (3 tgt)7.9