Dallas Goedert
TEPHI · bye 10DNA VNova projection
139season budget (pts)
9.92
PPR / game
95
Nova rank
T6
tier
0
VORP
Market
128.9
ADP · 11.09
87-149
draft range
115
expert ECR
86-157
expert range
+36
Nova vs market rank
+36
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
53
floor (P10)
139
median (budget)
233
ceiling (P90)
14%
P(tier-1 season)
30%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE10-TE34
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.012x position norm · 39 games · 10.9 mean PPR
Market coverage
+10
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Dallas Goedert is Nova's 95th-ranked player overall (TE, PHI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 139 points this season, about 9.92 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 129, well behind Nova's 95, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 14% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 53 points (floor) to 233 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +10). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 95 | T6 | 0 | 14% | TE10-TE34 | 52.5-232.6 |
| Half PPR | 97 | T6 | -0.3 | 15% | TE10-TE33 | 43-190.5 |
| Standard | 90 | T7 | 0.6 | 16% | TE9-TE32 | 33.5-148.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 100 | T8 | 0 | 14% | TE10-TE34 | 52.5-232.6 |
Nova season stat lines14 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 518.1 |
| Receptions | 50.1 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.1 |
2025 usage profile15 games
85%
snap share
5.5
targets / game
21%
team target share
15%
air yards share
0.418
WOPR (opportunity)
4
receptions / game
73%
catch rate
7.2
yards / target
38.9
air yards / game
15
red-zone opportunities (10 TDs)
+7
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+8.2
TD pace vs position (11 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
4
drops
4.7%
drop rate
109.6
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 54% over | 6.1 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 574.5 | 50% over | 518.1 | -9.8% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PHI vs DAL | 7-44-0 (7 tgt) | 11.4 |
| W3 | PHI vs LA | 1-33-1 (2 tgt) | 10.3 |
| W4 | PHI vs TB | 4-37-2 (4 tgt) | 19.7 |
| W5 | PHI vs DEN | 3-19-1 (9 tgt) | 10.9 |
| W6 | PHI vs NYG | 9-110-1 (11 tgt) | 26.0 |
| W7 | PHI vs MIN | 3-18-0 (3 tgt) | 4.8 |
| W8 | PHI vs NYG | 3-28-2 (3 tgt) | 17.8 |
| W10 | PHI vs GB | 4-43-0 (6 tgt) | 8.3 |
| W11 | PHI vs DET | 2-24-0 (5 tgt) | 4.4 |
| W12 | PHI vs DAL | 2-20-0 (2 tgt) | 4.0 |
| W13 | PHI vs CHI | 2-27-0 (4 tgt) | 4.7 |
| W14 | PHI vs LAC | 8-78-0 (10 tgt) | 15.8 |
| W15 | PHI vs LV | 6-70-2 (7 tgt) | 25.0 |
| W16 | PHI vs WAS | 3-32-1 (3 tgt) | 12.2 |
| W17 | PHI vs BUF | 3-8-1 (6 tgt) | 9.8 |