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Dallas Goedert

TEPHI · bye 10DNA V

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Nova projection
139season budget (pts)
9.92
PPR / game
95
Nova rank
T6
tier
0
VORP
Market
128.9
ADP · 11.09
87-149
draft range
115
expert ECR
86-157
expert range
+36
Nova vs market rank
+36
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
13953floor P10233ceiling P90
53
floor (P10)
139
median (budget)
233
ceiling (P90)
14%
P(tier-1 season)
30%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE10-TE34
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.012x position norm · 39 games · 10.9 mean PPR
Market coverage
+10
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Nova above marketEarly SOS 20.3Playoff SOS 19Bye 10

Dallas Goedert is Nova's 95th-ranked player overall (TE, PHI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 139 points this season, about 9.92 per game.

He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 129, well behind Nova's 95, so he tends to return more than his cost.

Nova gives him about a 14% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 53 points (floor) to 233 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +10). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR95T6014%TE10-TE3452.5-232.6
Half PPR97T6-0.315%TE10-TE3343-190.5
Standard90T70.616%TE9-TE3233.5-148.5
2QB / Superflex100T8014%TE10-TE3452.5-232.6

Nova season stat lines14 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards518.1
Receptions50.1
Receiving TDs6.1

2025 usage profile15 games

85%
snap share
5.5
targets / game
21%
team target share
15%
air yards share
0.418
WOPR (opportunity)
4
receptions / game
73%
catch rate
7.2
yards / target
38.9
air yards / game
15
red-zone opportunities (10 TDs)
+7
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+8.2
TD pace vs position (11 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

3
broken tackles forced
4
drops
4.7%
drop rate
109.6
passer rating when targeted

Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection

StatDK lineMarket leanNovaΔ%
Receiving TDs4.554% over6.1n/a
Receiving Yards574.550% over518.1-9.8%

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1PHI vs DAL7-44-0 (7 tgt)11.4
W3PHI vs LA1-33-1 (2 tgt)10.3
W4PHI vs TB4-37-2 (4 tgt)19.7
W5PHI vs DEN3-19-1 (9 tgt)10.9
W6PHI vs NYG9-110-1 (11 tgt)26.0
W7PHI vs MIN3-18-0 (3 tgt)4.8
W8PHI vs NYG3-28-2 (3 tgt)17.8
W10PHI vs GB4-43-0 (6 tgt)8.3
W11PHI vs DET2-24-0 (5 tgt)4.4
W12PHI vs DAL2-20-0 (2 tgt)4.0
W13PHI vs CHI2-27-0 (4 tgt)4.7
W14PHI vs LAC8-78-0 (10 tgt)15.8
W15PHI vs LV6-70-2 (7 tgt)25.0
W16PHI vs WAS3-32-1 (3 tgt)12.2
W17PHI vs BUF3-8-1 (6 tgt)9.8