Home
Draft
Draft War RoomPreseason RankingsMock DraftRookie BoardHandcuff FinderStrength of ScheduleBye PlannerCheat SheetValues & ReachesScarcity CurveStack Finder
In-Season
Weekly ProjectionsWaiver WireInjury WatchScenariosLineup OptimizerTrendingScores
Tools
CompareTrade AnalyzerWhat-IfMy LeagueConnect LeagueTrade FinderTeamsRoster Report CardExport
Research
Divergence WatchLine MoversSignal LibraryArmchair QBAsk NovaFloor / CeilingOpportunityConsistency
About
MethodologyAccountabilityChallenge the Model

Calvin Ridley

WRTEN · bye 9DNA V

← back to rankings

Nova projection
124season budget (pts)
9.51
PPR / game
162
Nova rank
T6
tier
-37.6
VORP
Market
160.5
ADP · 14.04
145-175
draft range
186
expert ECR
129-301
expert range
+20
Nova vs market rank
+20
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
12448floor P10211ceiling P90
48
floor (P10)
124
median (budget)
211
ceiling (P90)
4%
P(tier-1 season)
12%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR40-WR99
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.064x position norm · 41 games · 11.62 mean PPR
Market coverage
-6
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Nova below marketEarly SOS 18.2Playoff SOS 26.7 (soft)Bye 9

Calvin Ridley is Nova's 162nd-ranked player overall (WR, TEN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 124 points this season, about 9.51 per game.

Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 161, Nova 162).

Nova gives him about a 4% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 48 points (floor) to 211 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -6). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR162T6-37.64%WR40-WR9948.3-211.2
Half PPR158T6-31.75%WR39-WR9740.3-176.1
Standard150T7-22.75%WR37-WR9532.2-141
2QB / Superflex174T8-39.64%WR40-WR9948.3-211.2

Nova season stat lines13 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards629.5
Receptions41.3
Receiving TDs2.7
Rushing Yards20.1

2025 usage profile7 games

57%
snap share
5.1
targets / game
17%
team target share
24%
air yards share
0.423
WOPR (opportunity)
2.4
receptions / game
47%
catch rate
8.4
yards / target
64.7
air yards / game
-1.4
TD pace vs position (0 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

0
broken tackles forced
4
drops
7.4%
drop rate
82.5
passer rating when targeted

Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection

StatDK lineMarket leanNovaΔ%
Receiving TDs3.545% over2.7n/a
Receiving Yards624.550% over629.5+0.8%

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1TEN vs DEN4-27-0 (8 tgt)6.7
W2TEN vs LA3-57-0 (6 tgt)8.7
W3TEN vs IND1-27-0 (7 tgt)3.7
W4TEN vs HOU2-30-0 (3 tgt)5.0
W5TEN vs ARI5-131-0 (10 tgt)18.1
W6TEN vs LV1-18-0 (1 tgt)2.8
W11TEN vs HOU1-13-0 (1 tgt)2.3